Opinion polls predict hung parliament

VOTING in India, the world's largest democracy, gets under way today. Around 190 million of 590 million registered voters will go to the polls to elect 150 of 545 members of parliament, amid predictions of a hung parliament.

The second and third round of voting, for the remaining 395 seats, will be on May 2nd and 7th amid tight security and the results will be declared by May 10th.

A new government is expected to be in office by mid May.

But with a majority of opinion polls and political parties anticipating an uncertain outcome, President Shankar Dayal Sharma will play a key role in deciding who forms the government.

And although the three main competitors the ruling Congress (I) Party, the Hindu opposition Bharatiya Janata Party, the BJP and the centrist Janata Dal-Left Front alliance - are each confident of winning close to 270 seats and forming the government, opinion polls predict a hung parliament.

According to a cross-section of opinion polls this is due to overall voter disenchantment with politicians who are widely perceived as corrupt, inefficient and opposed to reform or progress and the absence of any major issues or personalities.

Senior politicians from the three major parties also admitted that voter apathy will make alliances crucial as no single party would win enough seats to be able to automatically form the government.

In the event of no party or political grouping securing a majority, the accepted course for President Sharma. India's head of state, is to invite the single largest party to form the government and prove its majority in parliament.

But problems can arise if that party finds it difficult to muster majority support as there is no precedent in India's constitution for such an eventuality.

The President's discretion will then determine which party is best equipped to form the government and what time-frame it is to be allowed to prove its parliamentary majority.

"A situation can arise when the President has no convention to tall back on in deciding whom he should invite to form the government," said a constitutional expert.

"Only his common sense and impartiality will then come to his aid," he added.

But analysts and outgoing MPs concede that this would be the juncture when horse-trading would peak and suitcases full of money change hands, buying up political support and loyalty from smaller, regional parties and independent MPs.

And, considering that India's two coalition governments in the past lasted less than two years - the one led by the then prime minister in 1990, Mr Vishwanath Pratap Singh, lasted 11 months - several political pundits predict another election soon.