Obama ahead in almost all voter groups

US Election: It was clear as soon as the Iowa caucuses began on Thursday night that they were good news for Barack Obama and…

US Election:It was clear as soon as the Iowa caucuses began on Thursday night that they were good news for Barack Obama and bad news for Hillary Clinton but closer analysis of the results shows just how dramatic Obama's victory actually was, writes Denis Staunton.

He not only won the support of 38 per cent of caucus-goers, compared to 30 per cent for John Edwards and 29 per cent for Clinton but was ahead in almost every single voter group.

Obama's advantage among voters under 30 was immense, winning over 57 per cent of them, compared to 14 per cent for Edwards and just 11 per cent for Clinton.

He was also significantly ahead among independents with 41 per cent, compared to 23 per cent for Edwards and Clinton's 14 per cent.

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Obama was ahead among rural voters and urban voters, he was the favourite for men but also for women - the group Clinton had targeted most assiduously. The only group where Clinton topped Obama was among voters over 65 - not an ideal voter base for a candidate who claims to represent change.

Sixty per cent of Democratic caucusgoers were attending a caucus for the first time and these new voters accounted for almost three out of four Obama supporters.

Half of those who caucused said their top priority in choosing a candidate was to find someone who could effect change, compared to just 20 per cent who said the right experience was the most important factor.

Obama made change the keynote of his campaign, while Clinton returned in the closing days to her claim to be the most experienced candidate "ready to start on Day One".

Only one in 10 said that electability was most important and those who did thought that Clinton and Edwards might be more electable than Obama. The best news for Democrats was the huge surge in turnout, which was almost twice the 2004 level and was more than twice the number who attended the Republican caucus.

The Democrats also attracted far more independent voters than Republicans, a sign that swing voters are more energised by the Democratic field and are more likely to back the party's candidate in November.

In his victory speech on Thursday night, Obama said the support he received from independents and Republicans was a sign that Americans were ready to overcome party divisions. "This was the moment when we tore down barriers that have divided us for far too long - when we rallied people of all parties and ages to a common cause; when we finally gave Americans who'd never participated in politics a reason to stand up and do so.

"This was the moment when we finally beat back the politics of fear, and doubt, and cynicism; the politics where we tear each other down instead of lifting this country up. Years from now, you'll look back and say that this was the moment - this was the place - where America remembered what it means to hope," he said.

Denis Staunton

Denis Staunton

Denis Staunton is China Correspondent of The Irish Times