Northern Ireland elections hinge on next 48 hours

The holding of the Northern Ireland Assembly elections next month hinges on whether the Taoiseach and British Prime Minister …

The holding of the Northern Ireland Assembly elections next month hinges on whether the Taoiseach and British Prime Minister can, within the next 48 hours, secure an IRA commitment to cease all activity.

Both leaders remain confident a commitment of intent by the IRA to cease its activities can be secured to achieve a breakthrough.

However, doubt remains as to whether UUP leader Mr David Trimble would sign up to an agreement even if the IRA made a statement acceptable to the two governments.

Mr Trimble said yesterday he could not accept the commitments in Mr Adams's speech in Stormont on Sunday because they did not directly come from the IRA.

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But both governments have already accepted commitments from Mr Adams, apparently speaking on behalf of the IRA, that the IRA is prepared to dispose of all its arms and end its campaign of violence.

Much could hinge on a meeting between Mr Trimble and Mr Blair in London tomorrow. If Mr Adams gives the required clarification, Mr Blair must then call elections for May 29th as scheduled or postpone them until October - as Mr Trimble is understood to privately want.