Brian Kennedy or Finnish death metal band Lordi? Karen Fricker weighs the Eurovision semi-final odds.
It's all going to come down to the night. Thursday evening at 8pm Irish time, 23 acts will take the stage at the OAKA Olympic Indoor Hall in Athens in the qualifying semi-final round of the 51st Eurovision Song Contest. As with last year, Ireland's act must clear this round in order to progress to the final on Saturday.
While most expert polls consider Ireland's chances of being one of the 10 semi-finalists to make it to the final to be slim, Eurovision aficionados also agree that Brian Kennedy could still pull it off if he delivers an outstanding performance.
The key issue, many argue, is that Kennedy is singing a traditional, slow ballad - a style that worked a charm for Ireland in the Johnny Logan days, but which may be out of step with the current trend towards up-tempo, ethnic razzmatazz.
"It is possible for Ireland to qualify, but it's going to be tough," says Barry Viniker, head of communications for esctoday.com, the leading independent Eurovision website. "The contest is very much Euro-vision these days, and this year's Irish presentation is very simple. But Brian's song is strong, and his voice comes across very powerfully in the arena. That said, it still might be worth sending a quarter of a million pints of Guinness to Iceland very quickly."
Kennedy, for his part, seems confident that Every Song is a Cry for Love, which, controversially, he wrote himself, is right both for him and the country.
"The song was written to be sung simply, in an acoustic live style. Now that I've heard the rest of the competing songs, which are full of drums and that kind of madness, we've added some drums and orchestration as the song progresses. But if you look at the history of Ireland in Eurovision, what wins for us is ballads. And I think a ballad will be a nice respite for people during the semi-final this year as they're hearing so many 'kitchen sink' songs, with all the bells and whistles thrown in," says Kennedy.
Julian Vignoles, the head of RTÉ's Eurovision delegation, also strongly defends the choice of a downtempo song this year.
"Three of the songs that finished in the top five last year were slow songs. Rather than try and compete with a very busy kind of track, we decided to go in the direction of Rock and Roll Kids. No one thought that was going to win, but simplicity carried the day. People are always looking for something different."
Ireland is not the only country banking on the European viewing public's hunger for innovation this year. Perhaps the most talked-about act in the run-up to Athens has been another semi-finalist Lordi, a death metal band from Finnish Lapland whose hits include Would You Love a Monsterman and Chainsaw Buffet, and who are known for blowing up slabs of meat as part of their act. To the shock of many Eurovision purists, Lordi's Hard Rock Hallelujah has been polling well and seems a dead cert to qualify for the final, and may well place in the top 10 overall.
The UK, which finished last in 2005 - but as one of the "big four" Eurovision funders (along with Germany, France and Spain) automatically qualifies for the final - also opted for novelty this year. Its entry is Teenage Life, which has the 40-something DJ Daz Sampson rapping against a background chorus of sexy schoolgirls ("a bit pervy", was Kelly Osbourne's memorable assessment when the song competed in the UK national final).
THE DARK HORSE of this year's contest could well be Germany's Texas Lightning, a Hamburg-based country and western band whose repertoire includes countrified versions of Like a Virgin and Walk on the Wild Side. Their Eurovision song is a catchy slow-burner called No, No, Never, which several Eurovision insiders, including a spokesman for the host Greek delegation, Agis Menoutis, say may make a last-minute break to win.
This is a surprising assessment indeed coming from a representative of Greece, given that it is this year's Greek song, Everything, which currently tops every betting pool.
"We're ready to host again," assures Menoutis, pointing out that, because of strong sponsorship and advertising deals, the host broadcaster, ERT, will make at least €1 million in profits above the €12 million spent running the contest this year (thus foiling the general impression, in Ireland at least, that hosting Eurovision is inevitably a drain on a local economy).
Greece's not-so-secret weapon this year is singer Anna Vissi, known as "Madonna of the Middle East", who has competed in Eurovision twice before, in 1980 for Greece and 1982 for her native Cyprus. Vissi, who is believed to be in her late 40s despite her ridiculously youthful appearance, is engaged in a top-of-the-polls battle of the divas with 39-year-old Carola, who is competing for the third time for Sweden, a semi-finalist this year, having won the contest in 1991 with Fängad av en Stormvind. If a great-looking woman giving it full Eurovision-pop welly is destined to win this year, Vissi and Carola's only plausible competition is another semi-finalist, Belgium's Kate Ryan, who has youth on her side (she's 25) and, like her two competitors, the avid promotional support of her national broadcaster and record company.
Vissi, Carola and Ryan, along with Malta's Fabrizio, have all toured widely in the past several months, each visiting more than 15 voting countries. Such promotional tours are becoming an increasingly crucial part of Eurovision success; the winners of the last two contests, Ukraine's Ruslana and Greece's Helena Paparizou, both invested in extensive and high-profile tours. Ireland has made limited investment in touring: one country last year, five this year, something that experts say will need to be ramped up in future. "If we want to start winning Eurovision again," says Sharon McHugh, head of novelty betting for Paddy Power, "we're going to have to start targeting the broader voting audience."
After several years of very disappointing results, it's doubtless a bit ambitious to wish for an overall win for Ireland this year; the appropriate focus of national attention at this stage should probably be ringing friends and relations abroad and urging them to get texting for Brian on Thursday night.
Sweden 2-1
Bosnia and Herzegovina 3-1
Belgium 5-1
Russia 6-1
FYR Macedonia 12-1
Finland 14-1
Estonia 14-1
Iceland 16-1
Ukraine 20-1
Ireland 20-1
Odds supplied by paddypower.com