New variant CJD rates give `grounds for optimism'

There are grounds for optimism about current levels of new variant CJD, which suggest predictions of a large-scale epidemic due to the human form of BSE may not be realised, according to the Food Safety Authority chief executive, Dr Patrick Wall.

It was reassuring to see "no great tranche of cases lurking in the wings", with just six cases in the UK and one in the North currently under observation, Dr Wall said yesterday. Twenty-five people have died from nvCJD associated with eating beef infected by rogue proteins known as prions, of whom 24 were British and one French.

Even allowing for what is believed to be a long incubation period of perhaps 10 to 20 years, predictions of many thousands of cases may prove to be wrong, he said, since on that basis one would expect to see hundreds of cases by now. The current number of Irish BSE cases, however, was "a bit worrying", though the total was small, he told the Environmental Health Officers' Association conference. "Make no mistake, BSE is a British problem but our curve [of cases in cattle] is not going the way you would like."

With 27 BSE cases to date this year, Dr Wall said he hoped a downward turn would emerge soon. BSE was to a large extent outside the control of Ireland, he noted, but a move to prevent collectively outbreaks of E coli 0157 was a crucial and immediately feasible public health strategy.

This emerging bug, he said, was rewriting the food safety script globally, primarily because a small number of the bacteria could cause severe infection and death, and farmers could do little to control it since it was a normal constituent of the gut in cattle.

Based on Irish figures - there were 15 notified cases within the Eastern Health Board region, including one child fatality, during 1997 - and his analysis of UK figures, he expected there would be 50 Irish cases this year.

The highest risk of transmission might be water, given the high number of private group water schemes, often associated with poor chlorination and fed by surface water frequently contaminated by cattle faeces.

The conference also heard that poorly designed septic tanks which were rarely maintained properly were causing colossal problems for groundwater supplies. The vast majority of more than 300,000 septic tanks were not operating effectively, an EHOA review estimated. Some £400 million would be required to ensure adequate groundwater protection in their vicinity.

The Environmental Protection Agency favoured mandatory labelling of genetically modified (GM) foods, including their derivatives, EPA scientist Dr Tom McLoughlin said. The Government should adopt tighter EU regulations on novel foods which would apply to GM foods and their labelling, and "further safeguard the consumer".

Foods derived from the use of GM organisms, such as oil from modified soya, would have to be labelled. But, he noted, the regulations allowed companies not to label if - as many are already claiming - their product is "substantially equivalent" to nonmodified versions. It was the EPA view, nonetheless, that all GM foods and derivatives should be labelled.