New confidence, new thinking hastens change

Anything is possible when public morale is high

Anything is possible when public morale is high. The advent of the "Celtic Tiger", exposure to European influences and our growing prosperity and confidence as a people have all contributed to a willingness to look at old problems in new ways.

By embracing the Belfast Agreement in such overwhelming numbers, nationalists on both sides of the Border have rejected the traditional use of violence in pursuit of a united Ireland and have agreed the terms and conditions under which future constitutional change may occur.

Innovation in social and economic thinking has crept into the political mindset. And the Belfast Agreement has produced an imaginative leap which is the marvel of some foreign diplomats.

Defining a nation in terms of its people, rather than by its territory, was the key to this approach. It allowed for the dismantling of outdated, arthritic concepts and perceptions in favour of open-ended dual citizenship; closer relations within and between these islands in an EU context; and a commitment to the principle of consent and majority voting on the future of Northern Ireland.

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Three-stranded political structures, designed to address the concerns and aspirations of a divided community, were grounded in an inter-government agreement. Reform of policing, parity of esteem, arms decommissioning and equal rights were part of the overall package.

Timing and luck have been critical factors. Thirty years of struggle in Northern Ireland brought war-weariness and a desire for peace. This was aided by the determination of leading republicans and loyalists to prevent a new generation being sucked into violence. Years of painstaking political negotiations, allied to the incoming British government's commitment to establish devolved administrations in Scotland and Wales, made change inevitable.

Here in the Republic, the confidence generated by rapid social and economic growth allowed the people to contribute their reassurance to unionists by abandoning the territorial claim under Articles 2 & 3.

The waves of change - economic, social and constitutional - coincided and overlapped to create an opportunity for political creativity and compromise. The Belfast Agreement was adopted and the scene has been set for a new and challenging political adventure.

It didn't just happen. A succession of governments and party leaders laid the foundations over many years. Even when the agreement was finally signed, the initial public reaction in the South was one of caution, with 61 per cent in favour and 20 per cent opposed. But hard selling by Bertie Ahern, John Bruton, Ruairi Quinn and Proinsias De Rossa of the intrinsic merits of the package and the prospect for peace had its impact.

A month later the situation had been transformed. Sinn Fein endorsed the document at its ardfheis and voted to take its seats in an assembly. The Dail parties and all 166 TDs were committed to the agreement. Last Friday, 94.4 per cent of those who voted followed the advice of their leaders. It was a truly extraordinary performance.

If the size of the turnout was somewhat disappointing, at 54.7 per cent, there was no questioning the outcome. The highest percentage of No votes was recorded in Cork North Central and in Kerry North, at 7.2 per cent, while in the Border counties it ranged from 5.6 to 7 per cent.

To adapt the revolutionary dictum whereby the guerrilla is the fish and the people's support the water he swims in, the water in which paramilitary organisations swam has been drained away by the referendum. Recognising that fact, the Taoiseach warned that the Government would not tolerate any attempt by disaffected republican elements to derail the agreement. All necessary steps would be taken. Now that the agreement has been endorsed, the really hard political work begins. In that regard, the two governments will be deeply involved in shaping new structures and encouraging political co-operation in the North. In the meantime, there will be the marching season, arms decommissioning, the formation of the Northern executive and reform of the RUC.

In the Republic, the first county council elections in eight years will be held next summer. The political parties look to them as a platform from which to launch their general election campaigns in the year 2000 or 2001. Fianna Fail and Sinn Fein would hope the "lift" the parties received from the Belfast Agreement would translate into council seats.

Two weeks ago, Fianna Fail support was recorded at a record level of 63 per cent. Fine Gael took 18 per cent and the Labour Party 9 per cent. But Sinn Fein secured 3 per cent, ahead of the Green Party, the Progressive Democrats, Democratic Left and the Workers' Party.

Such voting intentions may not hold. After all, its only a matter of months since Fianna Fail lost two by-elections. The economy, rather than Northern Ireland, concentrates minds at election time in the Republic.

Having moved to political centre stage in Northern Ireland, where it is now attempting to piggy-back on SDLP support through a voting pact, Sinn Fein also has ambitions in the Republic. With 3 per cent support in the latest opinion poll, the party is well placed to win a range of council seats. After that, it will target the Dail.

The success or otherwise of the Belfast Agreement and the role of republicans within that process will dictate the success of Sinn Fein in the South. If the IRA is seen as a continuing barrier to progress and peace, ein the party will be marginalised.

Success for the new political departure in Northern Ireland could, on the other hand, provide Sinn Fein with the long-term influence required, on both sides of the Border, to establish a new bridgehead towards a united Ireland.