The Mother and Child Campaign will oppose the Government's abortion amendment "tooth and nail", according to its spokesman, Mr Justin Barrett.
It will do so because, according to a briefing document on the campaign's position, it significantly worsens the protection available to the unborn, especially the unimplanted embryo. It rejects the argument that it was necessary to prevent legislation for the X case, which found abortion was permissible if a threat of suicide represented a real and substantial risk to the life of the mother.
If the referendum is defeated, the Mother and Child Campaign will take legal action to get a court declaration that legislation to allow abortion, if there is a threat of suicide, is unconstitutional, Mr Barrett told The Irish Times.
Its decision to oppose the referendum is based on a dramatic reversal of its former position, which held that the decision in the X case allowed for the legalisation of abortion on wide grounds, including when there was a threat of suicide by the mother. This is not so, according to its latest legal advice, Mr Barrett said. The group's briefing document explains that this judgment said abortion was permissible where it was established as a matter of probability there was a real and substantial risk to the life of the mother. The specific circumstances of that case were that such a risk arose because the girl in question was suicidal because she was being prevented by injunction from seeking an abortion in Britain.
This situation was no longer possible, said Mr Barrett, following the 1992 amendment to the Constitution establishing the right to travel for an abortion. "A woman who said she was suicidal would be unlikely to be able to prove she would carry out that threat if it was possible to travel to Britain."
Asked what would happen if the woman was unable to travel on health grounds, he said: "Then there would be a new test case. It is very unlikely that that would happen, that she would still be in a position to carry out her threat. The pro-abortion people would have been seeking such a case and could not find one."
Mr Barrett welcomed the results of The Irish Times poll, which showed only five points separating those in favour of the proposal from those opposed to it. "Following the bishops' statement in support of the amendment, the Pro-Life Campaign and the Government would have needed to be 15 points ahead when it is going to be opposed on the pro-life side and the pro-abortion side. A lot of their support was based on fear of the consequences. When we have shown that there are no such consequences that support will fall. We could be looking at a collapse as spectacular as Adi Roche's."
Mr Barrett confirmed the Mother and Child Campaign would be speaking to other anti-abortion groups about its position during the week, including the Pro-Life Campaign.
Among them will be Ireland for Life, founded by Ms Mary Thornton. She too welcomed The Irish Times poll as encouraging.
"It would be wrong for the pro-choice people to claim the 31 per cent opposition. A lot of that demonstrates the level of awareness of this among those of a pro-life disposition." When everyone was on board they would organise a gathering of all those opposed to the referendum from an anti-abortion perspective.