MEXICO: A war of exit polls and partial results has fuelled the ongoing uncertainty in Mexico as the outcome of Sunday's presidential poll proves too close to call.
Preliminary official results indicated that conservative candidate Felipe Calderon had secured a narrow victory with 36.3 per cent of the tally while his rival, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, Amlo, had 35.4 per cent, leaving PRI candidate Roberto Madrazo a distant third with just 19 per cent.
Out of 72 million potential votes, the difference between the two front-runners was just 380,000 votes, a slim margin in a contest which offered two very different visions of Mexico's potential development.
The high turnout, estimated at 60 per cent, was considered a vote of confidence in Mexico's evolving democratic institutions.
Mexico's electoral institute has called for a box-by-box recount of the votes beginning tomorrow, before declaring a definite winner. Both leading candidates claimed "irreversible" victory by their own calculations.
"We have won the contest by at least 500,000 votes and this is irreversible," said Mr Lopez Obrador, speaking to thousands of supporters early yesterday morning. He urged the electoral authority to ratify his "unassailable" lead but his request was denied.
Thousands of his supporters ignored the rain in the city's central Zocalo square and shouted "Fraude! Fraude!", but voting day passed off without incident and few complaints were registered. Several hundred Amlo supporters remain camped out in the central Zocalo plaza pledging to "fight all the way" to defend what they see as a certain victory.
"I was here in 1988 and 1994 and this time we will not allow the presidential seat to be taken from us," said Jesus Guerrero, who travelled from Puebla state, two hours away, to follow the post-election process in the capital city.
Once polls closed on Sunday, speculation was rife as the electoral authority declined to issue partial results as promised beforehand. "The result is scientifically impossible to determine at this point," observed a terse press statement a few hours later as election officials pleaded with impatient candidates to desist from claiming victory.
Meanwhile Mr Calderon, of the governing National Action Party (PAN), appeared at his campaign headquarters and quoted a number of exit tallies to justify his own victory declaration. "I have no doubt that we have won the presidential elections," he said to a group of cheering followers. "As soon as the IFE ratifies my triumph, I will call together a government of national reconciliation with delegates from all political parties."
Not to be outdone, centre-left rival Mr Lopez Obrador said he too would invite business people, indigenous, church representatives, workers and farmers to hammer out a national agreement on the future direction of the country. "I thank the poor and the humble in particular for granting me this triumph," said a weary Amlo before returning home to await an official declaration.
Neither Mr Lopez Obrador nor Mr Calderon made any real effort to celebrate their supposed victories as the elaborate fiestas-in-waiting complete with moving stages, large screens, disco lights and mirror balls remained in darkness until further notice. The persistent rainfall added to the gloom as party leaders faced another sleepless night before their fate would be confirmed.
Mexico's president Vicente Fox has appealed for calm and praised voters for turning out in large numbers. He resisted the temptation to comment on the evolving count despite the apparent victory of his political heir, Mr Calderon.
Mexico's stock exchange enjoyed a bullish day as the business community anticipated a Calderon victory, ensuring the continuity of free market reforms and the privatisation of Mexico's lucrative oil industry.
Both candidates have said they will respect the official results and neither is likely to encourage street mobilisations that would diminish their standing among voters. The posturing of the two leading candidates is more macho bravado than heartfelt passion, playing to their anxious supporters in need of a pep talk. The electoral referee's decision, however unpalatable to one candidate, will be accepted as final.
"This election really shows up how divided this country is," said Rosaelba Arroyo, a former IFE executive. "It's hard to see how either candidate can impose their vision after such a close contest."
Mr Calderon's party won a small but decisive victory in congressional and senate elections, also held on Sunday, relegating the once powerful Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) to third place. Mr Madrazo refused to accept defeat, insisting that anything was possible until the last vote was counted.
The narrow PAN legislative victory fell well short of an outright majority, thus obliging it to seek allies among the opposition parties if legislative reforms are to be approved in the future.