UK:LONDON MAYOR Ken Livingstone has launched his bid for a third term in office to the backdrop of an opinion poll showing him trailing Conservative challenger Boris Johnson by as much as 12 points.
Few commentators believe the latest YouGov poll a reliable guide to what will happen when up to seven million Londoners have the opportunity to cast their votes, although the bookmakers have made Mr Johnson the early favourite to win the May 1st election. With nominations now open until March 28th another 10 candidates have indicated they may stand, even though Liberal Democrat standard-bearer Brian Paddick, currently registering just 12 per cent support, is already struggling to challenge the perception of a two-horse race.
Betfair has Mr Johnson the clear favourite at 8-13, while William Hill have cut the odds on him winning to 4/6 favourite and lengthened the odds on Mr Livingstone from 5/6 to 11/10. Burdened by incumbency, this could help re-energise Mr Livingstone's base and allow the mayor to cast himself as the underdog. However, Mr Livingstone will also have to campaign as never before on the strength of his own personality and first-name recognition as he battles a current national trend against Labour showing Britain's ruling party on a 25-year low.
Amid deepening gloom about the economic outlook, ICM yesterday confirmed the continuing backlash against chancellor Alistair Darling's budget, with Labour support falling to its lowest point since Gordon Brown became prime minister while David Cameron's Conservatives surged to a scale not seen since Margaret Thatcher's third landslide general election victory in 1987. With the Conservatives pulling ahead of Labour as the party considered best able to manage the economy, and the latest surge at the expense of Labour rather than the Lib Dems, the analysis attending yesterday's poll was that "Brown now risks being swamped by a perfect storm of falling support and a strong Tory showing".
Victory for Boris Johnson in the London mayoral election would mark the Conservative Party's first major success since John Major's government was ejected from power in 1997, and would significantly enhance Mr Cameron's claim that he can win the keys to 10 Downing Street in one electoral heave.
At his campaign launch yesterday Mr Livingstone stressed the important choices facing Londoners and insisted the forthcoming election was not some sort of "Big Brother celebrity" contest. Characterising his Tory challenger as a "dangerous" and divisive right-winger, Mr Livingstone suggested the choice was between Londoners moving forward harmoniously together, or turning the clock back. "There is a majority in London that wants to keep moving forward - economically, socially, in a multicultural city and on the environment. If that majority votes on May 1st it will win again," declared Mr Livingstone.
"I believe Londoners do not want to turn the clock back - they want to continue to work together to make London better in the way they have in the last eight years." He also quoted comedian Paul Merton describing Mr Johnson as "the man to lead London back into the 17th century".