The battle for disaffected voters is being won, for now, by Gilmore and Labour
TODAY'S Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll confirms Labour as the most popular political party.
With 33 per cent support, Labour has gained four points and recorded its strongest performance since polling began in 1982. The party’s rise since the 2007 general election, when it attracted just 10 per cent support, can only be described as meteoric.
Fianna Fáil has registered 24 per cent support, an increase of three points since June. The Green Party, on the other hand, is on just 2 per cent, a drop of two points.
Fine Gael is three points lower on 24 per cent, their lowest poll performance since June 2008.
Sinn Féin are down two points to 8 per cent, while Independents/ Others, on 9 per cent, are unchanged.
These poll findings come at a time of great uncertainty. Over the past few months, the media vacuum created by the long Dáil summer recess has been filled by an endless stream of less than encouraging economic analyses and predictions.
For the most part, the economic news has been negative, especially of late. It is clear, both anecdotally and from consumer sentiment tracking, that confidence in the economy is being weighed down by concerns about Anglo Irish Bank, bond spreads, unemployment, negative equity and the budget deficit. In fact, confidence has collapsed to such an extent that any improvement in confidence over the past year has been eroded. According to the September Ipsos MRBI Confidence Monitor, more than twice as many consumers (46 per cent) expect the economy to weaken in the year ahead than expect it to improve (18 per cent).
Also relevant to how we interpret the poll findings is the timing of fieldwork for this particular poll, which was conducted on Monday and Tuesday of this week when Ruairi Quinn’s intervention to facilitate a Government trade mission was headline news.
We can only speculate about which political or economic events have shaped today’s poll findings, but we can be more certain about some of the implications.
Labour has the potential to be the biggest party at the next general election if their message and their leader continue to resonate with voters. The party’s appeal is widespread, topping the poll in all regions except Connacht/Ulster, among all age groups, except the over-65s, and across all social groupings, except voters from farming backgrounds. Even in rural areas the party attracts 24 per cent of the vote, way behind its urban rating of 40 per cent, but enough to bring some constituencies into play for Labour for the first time.
Underpinning Labour’s surge is an extreme level of dissatisfaction with the Government. Among voters in general, 83 per cent are dissatisfied with how the Government is running the country, a number which climbs to 88 per cent among the credit-challenged 35-49 age group.
Fine Gael is not attracting Fianna Fáil defectors to the extent the party did in 2009. It is early days, however, and voters who have moved from Fianna Fáil to Fine Gael and on to Labour will not find it much of a stretch to move back to Fine Gael if the mood takes them.
However, most interesting of all is the small lift in support (up three points) for Fianna Fáil at a time when Fine Gael and Labour are squabbling over pairing arrangements. Labour’s strong performance in the polls could yet prove a blessing in disguise for Fianna Fáil if ultimately it creates a tension between the main Opposition parties. Machiavelli advised you should endeavour to divide the forces of your enemy, either by making him suspicious of his men or otherwise by giving him cause to separate his forces.
With the race to become the next taoiseach no longer a one-horse race, leader satisfaction ratings have taken on a new significance.
Eamon Gilmore appears to be going from strength to strength, with a satisfaction rating of 49 per cent, up three points and his highest rating in more than a year. Gerry Adams is awarded the next highest rating with 29 per cent, down two points since our last poll.
Satisfaction ratings for Enda Kenny (25 per cent, up one point) and Brian Cowen (19 per cent, up one point) remain close to their historic lows. Satisfaction with John Gormley’s performance as Green Party leader has slipped by three points, to 18 per cent, his lowest rating to date.
Today’s poll is all about the battle for disaffected voters, a battle being won, for now, by Gilmore and Labour. But voting intentions are highly volatile, with dramatic shifts in support between polls, and today’s poll, in that time-honoured phrase, provides a snapshot in time.