Labour lead slipping in Wales

Labour looks set to win a majority of seats in the new National Assembly for Wales when results are announced later today

Labour looks set to win a majority of seats in the new National Assembly for Wales when results are announced later today. Party strategists predict the Welsh Secretary, Mr Alun Michael, will win the election in Mid and West Wales and take his seat as First Secretary when the Assembly sits for the first time next week.

However, an exit poll conducted by BBC Wales last night forecast Labour could be forced into a coalition with the Liberal Democrats in the new National Assembly for Wales.

The poll predicted Labour would not fare as well as expected, winning between 28-32 seats instead of 34, forcing the party to look to the Liberal Democrats to form the leadership of the Assembly. Plaid Cymru could win between 13-17 votes, according to the poll, securing its position as the main opposition party. The Conservatives were expected to win between 7-11 seats while the Liberal Democrats were likely to win between 4-8 seats.

Turn-out was thought to be much lower than the 60 per cent expected. Putting a brave face on the results of the poll the Welsh Secretary, Mr Alun Michael said he "still expects" to lead a majority Labour party in the Welsh Assembly.

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Liberal Democrat MP, Mr Lembit Opik, said it was "too early to talk of coalition" but said the party would work with Labour on issues both parties agreed on.

Voting in Wales on "Super Thursday" was slow yesterday. Party leaders and candidates emphasised the "historic" opportunity to shift the balance of power away from Westminster and give the 2.2 million people of Wales their first Assembly since its parliament was extinguished 600 years ago.

In Cardiff yesterday afternoon constitutional revolution was far from the minds of voters. Many said they would wait until late evening to cast their votes.

One of the biggest challenges for the parties has been to reverse voter apathy.

Turn-out is crucial in Wales - only 50.3 per cent of the population took part in the referendum vote in 1997 with about half endorsing the Assembly - and a high-turn out would give the Assembly more credibility.

The limited powers of the new Assembly may have prevented some people from voting. Unlike the Scottish Parliament, which will have tax-varying powers and the power to pass primary legislation, the Welsh Assembly will assume responsibility for spending the £8 billion Welsh Office budget - in key areas such as education, health and the environment - but will not have tax-varying powers and will not be able to pass primary legislation.

As expected, the complex voting system baffled some of the voters, including, surprisingly, Mr Michael.

On the first ballot paper 40 members are elected on the first-past-the-post system and on the second ballot paper another 20 will be elected under the Additional Member System in five regions across Wales.

Accompanying his wife, Mary, who was casting her vote in Penarth, near Cardiff yesterday, Mr Michael admitted voting was "a little bit like a bingo game with lots of crosses to put in".

Casting his vote in Rhostryfan, near Caernarfon, the Plaid Cymru president, Mr Dafydd Wigley, said it was a "historic day for Wales". The Conservative leader in Wales, Mr Rod Richards, standing for election in Clwyd West, urged the Welsh people to cast their votes for the new political map being drawn for Wales. And the Liberal Democrat leader in Wales, Mr Mike German, voting in Cardiff Central, said Wales would be changed forever by yesterday's vote.