Labour hopes 'Gilmore gale' will sweep through beleaguered commuter belt

CONSTITUENCY PROFILE:KILDARE NORTH was the stomping ground of former finance minister Charlie McCreevy who resigned his Dáil seat in November 2004 when he was appointed to the European Commission.

In the subsequent byelection, Independent candidate Catherine Murphy, formerly with the Workers’ Party, then Democratic Left and, for a time, the Labour Party, secured fewer first preferences than Fianna Fáil’s Áine Brady, but overtook her on the fifth count to win the seat.

However, Brady came back in the 2007 general election, getting elected on the first count with an impressive 11,245 votes.

Murphy hung on until the seventh count, when a strong Fine Gael transfer ensured the re-election of Bernard Durkan for the main Opposition party.

Brady’s transfers helped running mate Michael Fitzpatrick get elected on the fifth count. Last year, he was diagnosed with motor neurone disease but the former McCreevy adviser and, before that, member of An Garda Síochána pledged to continue his political activities.

Labour chief whip Emmet Stagg has been a TD since 1987. He ran on his own last time, but his party will be hoping that the “Gilmore gale” can sweep in Stagg’s new running mate, councillor John McGinley from Maynooth.

However, Murphy is also seen as a strong contender for the left vote.

The constituency, part of the “commuter belt”++, has suffered acutely in the recession.

Unemployment has resulted in mortgage holders falling into arrears and the sharp decline in property values has put many families in a situation of negative equity.

“It’s a triple whammy,” said one local observer. “People are in fear of losing what they worked so hard for.”

There is a good deal of antipathy towards Fianna Fáil but, even in Fine Gael circles, there is still scepticism that this will lead to a complete collapse in the vote for the Soldiers of Destiny.

There was considerable negative reaction locally to the universal social charge introduced in the recent budget.

“People who have just opened their monthly pay cheques are not impressed,” said a constituency source.

Despite job losses resulting from the closure of the Superquinn branch in Naas, for example, multinationals continue to provide good employment even in these difficult times.

The volume and intensity of media coverage and the high level of interest in political developments mean that canvassers are encountering a better-informed voter than heretofore on the doorstep.

A wipeout for Fianna Fáil does not appear to be on the cards and the party is likely to retain one of its two seats, probably that of Minister of State Áine Brady, although there is strong sympathy and admiration for Deputy Fitzpatrick’s courageous fight against his illness.

Meanwhile, Catherine Murphy is likely to take back her Dáil seat as an Independent, while Stagg and Durkan are seen as virtually certain of re-election, for the Labour Party and Fine Gael respectively.