1997: FF 26.31%; FG 24.29%; Labour 29.90%; SF 15.91%; NP 3.6%.Outgoing TDs: Denis Foley (FF), Jimmy Deenihan (FG), Dick Spring (Lab).
Sinn Féin's Martin Ferris is now odds-on to win here, but Kerry North could prove to be a graveyard for Fianna Fáil's hopes of holding a seat in every constituency. The order of first preferences secured by the former Labour leader and Tánaiste, Dick Spring, Fine Gael's Jimmy Deenihan and the FF candidates, Cllr Tom McEllistrim and Sen Dan Kiely, will decide the remaining two seats. The division of the FF vote and the size of McEllistrim's lead over Kiely will determine whether the party can hold its seat, at the expense of Spring or Deenihan. Early tally signals about the transfer pattern between the FF duo will be telling. The share of the sizeable Tralee vote secured by Ferris, Spring and McEllistrim will influence the outcome. A significant drop in Mr Spring's tally in his home town will evoke memories of his 1987 near-defeat. Evidence that voters are transferring between Ferris and Spring will leave Deenihan - who has a weak base in Tralee - vulnerable to FF, particularly if he has lost support in his base at the northern end of the constituency.