Karzai's lead slips in Afghan vote

As counting in Afghanistan's presidential election nears its end, a drop in incumbent Hamid Karzai's lead has increased the burden…

As counting in Afghanistan's presidential election nears its end, a drop in incumbent Hamid Karzai's lead has increased the burden on an independent panel to decide if voting irregularities could have upset the result.

Election officials hope the panel that includes a Canadian diplomat and election experts from Britain and Sweden will have its report ready by midweek, shortly after the counting ends.

The panel switched a planned meeting with candidates to Monday from Saturday. But many remain sceptical over the process.

"We do not count on the panel... It is not the solution to our claims," said Ahmad Shah Ahmadzai, who was eighth in a field of 18.

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Another candidate, destined to be an also-ran, shared the same reservations.

"From our side, we will raise and discuss the issue of the violations and frauds, during the meeting with the panel. I doubted from the very beginning that the panel has any power to solve the problems," Abdul Hafiz Mansoor told Reuters.

The nearer Karzai slips to the 51 percent mark, the easier it will be for his opponents to claim multiple voting and ballot stuffing helped him over the line.

But the enthusiasm with which Afghans came out to vote on October 9, has made Karzai's opponents careful about calling foul.

A turnout put at over eight million people was seen as a testimony to Afghans' desire to end a quarter century of conflict.

Karzai has been a good ambassador on the world stage, advocating peace and reform, and winning Western financial support, diplomats say, though many Afghans complain the benefits have been slow in coming.

On Saturday morning his share of the ballot had fallen to 54.5 percent after sticking near 60 percent for most of the time since counting began.

The election commission reckoned it had tallied up 77.5 percent of the total votes, with expectations it will take just a couple more days to complete the count.

Karzai still looks set to obtain the 51 percent needed to score an outright victory and avoid a run-off against the second placed candidate.

Karzai has laboured under a perception that he was handpicked by Washington to lead an interim government established after U.S. and Afghan resistance forces drove the Taliban militia from power in late 2001.

There has been speculation from the outset, among rivals and ordinary Afghans, that the White House wanted a quick victory for Karzai so that President George Bush, with 18,000 U.S.-led troops in Afghanistan, could score a foreign policy success right before the U.S. election on November 2.

Karzai's camp sees the narrowed lead as a temporary blip with counting still underway in southern provinces, where the president can rely on votes from fellow ethnic Pashtuns.

"We're still very confident," said Hamid Elmi, a spokesman, told Reuters, noting results from Helmand, Khost, Paktika and Ghazni provinces still had to be added up.

"These are areas where we are quite strong."

The second placed candidate, Yunus Qanuni, from the largest ethnic minority, the Tajiks, had 17.3 percent of the vote.

Karzai's closest rivals depend heavily for support on ethnic loyalties, regional militia factions, and in some cases drug money, raising fears the president will find it difficult to shake-off the influence of so-called warlords.

The lower Karzai's vote is, the more likely it becomes that he will be forced into compromises in choosing his cabinet and provincial governors, and it will complicate his approach to parliamentary polls due next April.