BELGIUM:EUROPE'S LONGEST-SERVING leader has warned the Government not to hold a second referendum on the Lisbon Treaty anytime soon due to the worsening global economic crisis.
Luxembourg prime minister Jean-Claude Juncker has also said next year's European elections will be held under the Nice Treaty as Lisbon will not enter into force until 2010 at the earliest.
"In order to make an entry of the treaty into force possible before June 2009, the treaty would have to be ratified by all countries before the end of February," Mr Juncker said in a speech to the European Policy Centre think tank in Brussels yesterday. "It is not realistic to consider this could be done."
Mr Juncker's comments are the first made by any EU leader that publicly acknowledge that Ireland's rejection of the Lisbon Treaty cannot be overcome until at least 2010.
"If I were the Irish Prime Minister, I would not go for a referendum in the next months," Mr Juncker said. "Given the economic crisis, given the fact that confidence is lagging, governments are increasingly unpopular all around Europe, organising a referendum on the European treaty is a dangerous path to take."
For the Lisbon Treaty to enter into force all 27 member states must ratify it. So far 18 states have fully ratified it and most European observers predict that the only potentially serious obstacles to ratification of Lisbon are in Poland and the Czech Republic.
Berlin and Paris had initially hoped the Government would consider holding a second referendum early next year.
This would have enabled the European elections in June to be held under the Lisbon Treaty, which allows for 751 MEPs to be elected, rather than the Nice Treaty, which would cut the number of MEPs to 736. Spain will be the biggest loser if Lisbon does not enter into force as it would have received an extra four MEPs under Lisbon, although 12 states will now have reduced representation.
French president Nicolas Sarkozy still hopes Taoiseach Brian Cowen will be able to provide a solution to the EU's "Lisbon dilemma" at the December summit. He has invited Mr Cowen for talks in early October and, according to EU sources, is considering making a second visit to Dublin in early December.
Minister for European affairs Dick Roche will meet French minister for European affairs Jean-Pierre Jouyet in Paris today for talks on the Lisbon Treaty. However, Mr Roche told The Irish Timesyesterday the Government had made no decisions yet and his talks with Mr Jouyet would focus on explaining the Millward Brown IMS survey on the referendum.
Most EU diplomats, MEPs and commission officials now believe the earliest possible date that Mr Cowen may agree to hold a second vote on Lisbon is October 2009. Mr Juncker also signalled yesterday that this was a possibility when he predicted a resolution by early 2010.
"My guess would be that the treaty will enter into force around January 1st, 2010," Mr Juncker said at the think-tank discussion.
If the Government held a second referendum in October 2009, the reappointment of the European Commission - due to be completed by November 1st, 2009 - could be delayed for a short period to allow Ireland to complete ratification. It would also enable the Lisbon Treaty to enter into force before a British general election in early to mid-2010.
The Conservative Party has vowed to hold a referendum in Britain on the Lisbon Treaty if the Government has not managed to ratify it by then. Most observers believe this would be the final death knell of the treaty.