Brexit now ‘a secondary or tertiary issue for most countries’

To the person running an industrial business in a mid-sized German town, the fate of the Irish Border post-Brexit will naturally be of considerably less consequence than the future relations between the EU and the UK.

But even the second phase of the Brexit negotiations on trade relations, which the process now moves to, has been overshadowed by the wider debate around future reforms of the EU.

While the German and French media devoted significant coverage to the first-phase negotiations and the agreement reached to avoid a hard Irish Border, it has been far from the top item on the news agenda.

The final deal, when reached just over a week ago, received roughly the same level of coverage in France's media as plans for the funeral of French rocker Johnny Hallyday. The media's focus was largely on the terms of the divorce bill and looking ahead to the negotiations on a EU-UK trade deal.

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To some in Brussels the UK's decision to quit the European Union has been eclipsed by the reform agenda set out in September by French president Emmanuel Macron, which European policymakers have embraced as a foil against the Euroscepticism pushed by the populism that delivered Brexit.

"In the end Europe is moving ahead without the UK," said Fabian Zuleeg, chief executive and chief economist of the European Policy Centre, a Brussels-based think tank.

“Brexit is almost being treated as if it has happened already, so for most Europe countries I would say the wish is quite great to get it over and done with, to complete that process, to hopefully find a good deal with the UK. But if it doesn’t happen then that is also not seen as a major catastrophe.”

Sharp divisions

At the summit of EU leaders sharp divisions over migration, quotas for refugee allocations and post-crisis banking reforms, including a possible European monetary fund and a dedicated euro-area budget and finance minister, show that Brexit was “not top of the agenda”, said Zuleeg.

“I think you can see that at the summit at the moment. Of course it is there because there is a process and that process has to be followed. It is a secondary or tertiary issue for most countries.”

He said while no final Brexit deal might be "a huge problem for Ireland", it would be regarded as "a manageable problem for the European Union". The Irish Government had to prepare for that contingency.

“If we have a complete breakdown in the EU-UK relationship I think it is extremely difficult to see how you can secure any part of the phase one deal permanently for the future.”

Guntram Wolff, director of the Bruegel research institute in Brussels, said EU banking union issues, French domestic reforms and coalition talks on the formation of a government in Germany were the "big-ticket items" for the EU ahead of the UK's withdrawal from the trading bloc.

“When we talk on the one hand about the Brexit [divorce] bill and on the other about the European deposit insurance, you can imagine which one is fiscally, economically and politically much more significant – it is, of course, the deposit insurance. Brexit is a third-level item for most European policymakers by now.”

French public

Stéphane Crouzat, France’s ambassador in Dublin, said the French public was “keenly aware” of the importance of the Brexit deal on the Border, and it was a “misperception” to say that it was not. He pointed to the implications of the agreement for the wider EU.

“It has to be done satisfactorily and it is all the more important because it is crucial for the integrity of the single market and the customs union, and the French will be very vigilant to make sure that the integrity of the EU is well respected.”

Mr Crouzat does not believe that the push to reform the European Union led by his country’s president will become bogged down in Brexit negotiations.

“We have to deal with Brexit very carefully and be very vigilant about how the sequencing takes place in the negotiations, but we also have to think of the future of the union and that can really go hand in hand, and the Irish Government is completely on that line.”