THE word among republican grassroots in west Belfast is that the IRA is returning to war. The Manchester bomb is not a one off, they say. There will be further attacks in English cities and it is only a matter of time before the conflict resumes in the North.
IRA rank and file have been told over the past two months that the armed campaign will soon restart in Northern Ireland. They have been putting into place the logistical measures for such a development.
IRA units which had been meeting specifically during the ceasefire, are now regularly spotted together. There is widespread support among ordinary Provisional IRA members for a resumption of violence. The peace process is seen as having run its course.
The lack of progress at all party talks at Stormont Castle last week with unionist objections to former Senator George Mitchell dominating proceedings has strengthened the view that the negotiations are not worth entering anyway.
Sinn Fein isn't at the table and there are still massive difficulties," said one party source. "Imagine what it would be like if we were there? I don't think the talks have much credibility.
"The Brits are giving nothing and the unionists are giving nothing. What would be the point in going to Stormont even if we were allowed in?"
Sources insist that the bomb in Manchester was authorised by the Army Council and not rebel units, as some newspapers have suggested. It was carried out by a cell living and operating in England which reports directly to the IRA leadership.
The dominant feeling among IRA rank and file is that the republican movement has been continually humiliated by the British government since the cease fire was declared 20 months ago.
The Government is criticised for allegedly not putting adequate pressure on London. Discontent with the peace process surprisingly has not been placated by Sinn Fein's record 15.5 per cent vote in last month's elections.
"It was a good result, but it didn't by itself move the process forward," said one middle ranking Sinn Fein member in Andersonstown.
Certainly, the security forces appear to believe that the IRA is planning to relaunch its campaign in the North. There has been an increasingly heavy British army and RUC presence in republican areas of Belfast over the past week.
However, some republican sceptics still doubt that the "armed struggle" will restart in full gear. They believe that attacks like the Manchester bombing are simply the "armed wing of the peace process".
One source thought the bomb was to get hardliners "off the leadership's back for a while". There is still some speculation that it could be a "pay off" to militants for a reinstatement albeit temporary of the IRA ceasefire.
The natural thrust of Mr Gerry Adams and his colleagues is towards constitutionalism. Privately, many senior Sinn Fein members have said that the past 25 years exacted too high a price from their community, given its limited political achievements.
However, the leadership is determined to avoid a split at all costs. Internal tensions are running high, and some sources suggest that calling another ceasefire would risk a split. One Provisional IRA member in west Belfast said the Sinn Fein leadership would stand by the IRA if it returned to full scale war.
Leading proponents of the peace process are said to have promised that they Will not condemn the IRA in such an eventuality.
Even the leadership manages a reinstatement of the ceasefire, political progress will surely be even slower this time round. Much cynicism will surround Sinn Fein's motives. The British government and the unionists will make even harsher demands regarding decommissioning.
If grassroots are itchy now, their patience would be stretched to breaking point under such circumstances. Whatever the IRA decides over the next few weeks, the prospects for the peace process seem bleak.