The largest public sector trade union has warned members that most groups could receive no pay increases under a forthcoming benchmarking report.
In a newsletter published today Impact says most awards are likely to be zero if the benchmarking body imitates the recent group on top-level pay and reduces increases by 15 per cent to offset the value of public sector pensions.
In recent weeks trade union leaders have sought to dampen members' hopes of increases under the benchmarking process, which is expected to be finalised in the next few weeks.
The benchmarking process in 2002 provided for average increases of 8.9 per cent. The Impact newsletter says union leaders believe new awards will be much lower "because pay in the private sector has generally not increased faster than public service salaries since the 2002 benchmarking report".
"The first public service benchmarking body report didn't put a figure on the value of public service pensions. It merely said that pension cost differences between the sectors were considered by the body and taken into account in its recommendations on salary and pay levels," it notes.
The newsletter reports Impact general secretary Peter McLoone and other union leaders close to the process as saying: "This time will be different and most staff are likely to end up with no increase if the body places a double-digit value on pensions."
It says that the Review Body on Higher Remuneration recently recommended no increases for a significant number of public servants at the lower end of its remit.
"The higher pay body said it would cost employers 27 per cent of salary costs to 'buy' a pension to the value of those enjoyed by senior public servants.
"Yet private sector employers spent some 12 per cent on pension provision for a 'comparable employee'. Hence the 15 per cent premium on public servants' pensions. Impact pension experts say the relative value would be a bit less for staff in lower-paid grades. But there was still likely to be a double-digit gap between public servants and comparable private sector staff, at all levels, if a similar methodology is used."
Public servants are due two pay rises in 2008 under Towards 2016, the national agreement.