IEA warns consumers to plan for oil shortage

Car-pools and driving restrictions could help shave at least a million barrels a day (bpd) from industrialised nations' oil demand…

Car-pools and driving restrictions could help shave at least a million barrels a day (bpd) from industrialised nations' oil demand in the event of a supply crisis, the International Energy Agency said today.

They are among measures an IEA study, Saving Oil in a Hurry, says consuming nations must plan to ease potential shortages and price rises that could result from a large disruption to international supplies.

Oil prices have already risen to record highs above $58 this year as surging demand in Asia's emerging economies pushes world supplies close to current capacity. Goldman Sachs bank has warned of a potential "super-spike" to $100 a barrel.

Tighter motorway speed limits, special lanes for shared cars, free or cheaper public transport, a more compressed working week, and more telecommuting to reduce travel to and from work were among other measures suggested in the study.

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Energy ministers from the 26 industrialised nations the IEA advises on energy policy will discuss the proposed demand measures at a two day meeting in Paris next week.

The IEA report said rationing schemes to prevent panic fuel hoarding in a supply crunch are unpopular, expensive and difficult to maintain. "Governments should generally try to move quickly to approaches that are likely to be less costly to society," it said.

"The key is to provide viable alternatives to very inefficient single-occupant vehicle driving."

The most cost-effective policies include information programmes to promote telecommuting and flexible work schedules, "ecodriving", car-pooling, odd/even day driving bans, and, in some cases, speed reduction policies, the report said.

Policies that are not cost-effective include reducing public transit fares, increasing public transit service frequency, constructing car-pool lanes and purchasing home computers for half of all telecommuters.

The IEA urged governments not to interfere with market forces. "Higher oil prices give consumers an important signal to conserve fuel. Governments should not take actions that dampen this market signal."