Howlin's supporters predict victory

Mr Brendan Howlin's supporters are claiming he will secure an easy victory over Mr Ruairi Quinn in the contest to become leader of the Labour Party next Thursday.

The confidence surrounding this assessment was strongly disputed by Mr Quinn last night when he responded: "He would say that wouldn't he, as Mandy RiceDavies would say".

With key party strategists saying the contest is too close to call, sources close to Mr Quinn, who is fighting an exclusively internal party campaign, maintain that he is well on the way to winning the majority of 33 votes required to succeed Mr Dick Spring.

Mr Michael D. Higgins told The Irish Times last night that it was "unlikely" he would be a candidate. He will meet members of his constituency organisation tonight and he would give his decision after that meeting.

The general council, at a daylong meeting in Dublin yesterday which was addressed by Mr Spring, fixed 5 p.m. on Monday for the close of nominations for the leadership. The election will be held at 11 a.m. next Thursday.

Mr Spring's resignation will take effect at noon today and Mr Quinn, as deputy leader, will take over as acting leader until the election.

Meanwhile, the two declared candidates, Mr Quinn and Mr Howlin, have agreed a set of ground rules for the conduct of their campaigns to minimise divisiveness in the party. They have decided not to appoint campaign managers or publish manifestos. They have also agreed not to become involved in "public slagging matches" or head-to-head debates in public in effort to retain the unity of the party among their 64member internal electorate.

Policy formation and a radical overhaul of the organisation are the main issues being raised by members with the two leadership contenders.

In his pitch to voters, Mr Quinn is stressing the need for the Labour Party to redefine its vision for the country. He is proposing the establishment of a policy commission and the complete restructuring of the party from top to bottom.

Mr Howlin is asserting that his core values are the community, social solidarity and justice. He does not view Labour as a populist party. He is promising to revamp the party to make it more inclusive. Sources close to Mr Howlin are confident they have already won a clear majority of the 20-member parliamentary party. They also believe the general council is moving in their direction. Both of these claims are contested by Mr Quinn's supporters. They say that there is still a large body of up to 20 undecided voters.

Most TDs and senators have arranged meetings with their constituency organisations over the weekend to hear their views.

See also page 8