SUCCESSION RACE:Bookmakers last night installed foreign secretary David Miliband as hot favourite to be the new Labour leader. Other contenders were also considering their positions, with Ed Balls, the education secretary, thought to be the most certain to stand.
The electoral process is lengthy and complex, involving three equal electoral colleges: MPs and MEPs, party members, and the trade unions. The alternative vote system is used – ranking candidates 1, 2, 3 and so on. The likely runners are:
David Miliband (45). Foreign secretary. Odds: 4/6.
During the crisis-strewn Brown years, he has been, on and off, the most likely successor. He used the foreign office – the best platform for semi-detachment in government – to distance himself from Mr Brown when it suited – rarely stepping over the line to overt disloyalty.
His star fell after the Manchester conference in 2008 when he was implicated in a botched coup attempt, made a poor speech for the second year running, was squelched by the best line of Mr Brown’s career – “no time for a novice” – and was pictured holding a banana. He has since worked on his statesmanship and presented himself rather less like a nerdy sixth-form debater. His ambition is not in doubt.
Ed Balls (43). Education secretary. Odds: 12/1
Gordon Brown’s most faithful retainer in politics was still rated an outsider by most bookies last night, but he may prove a combative opponent. He has worked hard ingratiating himself with Labour MPs, turning up to their constituency events. He can also expect strong support from the powerful Unite union.
But he is a divisive and partisan figure, who may be ill-suited to an era of collaboration.
Ed Miliband (40). Climate change secretary. Odds: 8-1.
Constantly touted as a likely contender, despite the bizarre notion of his standing against his elder brother. Cerebral but reputedly indecisive, it is not quite clear where he might get his support.
Harriet Harman (59). Deputy leader. Odds: 12-1.
A proven winner on this course. In the 2007 deputy leadership contest she just beat Alan Johnson. Popular with Labour’s feminist contingent, but less popular among men.
Alan Johnson (59). Home secretary. Odds: 7-1.
The job might have been his a year ago but he talked himself out of it. If his lack of ambition was feigned, he was too convincing. And, as ever, the home office did nothing for his reputation.
Jon Cruddas (48). MP for Dagenham, Odds: 20-1.
The thinking man’s backbencher, but unimaginable as a modern leader. Untainted by government, he would bring thought and principle to the contest.
Jack Straw (64) Justice secretary. Odds: 33-1.
Probably too late for him.
Andy Burnham (40). Health secretary. Odds: 12-1
And too early for him.