As the travel industry staggers from crisis to crisis, there are openings for opportunists to take advantage of operators, writes Shane Hegarty
It has been a nervous year for the travel operators, with SARS affecting the Far East market, the war in Iraq affecting the Middle East and fears of terrorism affecting just about everywhere else. In some respects, it has been the year of the opportunist. Those willing to hold their nerve and book late in the hope of getting cheaper deals will have had some joy. During the war in Iraq there was a marked increase in the availability of cheap packages to North African destinations such as Morocco and Tunisia, as well as to Cyprus and Turkey.
It followed on from a winter season in which there was a small avalanche of cheap ski deals. After the previous year's ski season proved so busy, operators increased capacity for this year, only to find that people were less willing to travel and that planes were in danger of flying empty.
These, however, were package deals to nearby destinations. Has the global crisis led to more late deals for long-haul holidays? It has certainly affected this end of the travel market far more obviously, and as each crisis has hit, so travellers' attentions have changed.
"Australia became popular after September 11th, when people wanted to go on long-haul holidays but were worried about going to the US," says Michael Collins, editor of Irish travel magazine Abroad. "Then the Bali bombings hit and suddenly there was a drop off in those flying to Australia - and now it's South Africa that's popular."
A slow start to the year means there are deals available, but Collins says that people need to be sharp to get them, and even then the price is unlikely to be slashed dramatically.
Long-haul flights are scheduled flights, compared with those for continental holidays, which tend to be chartered. Once an operator charters a flight it will fill it regardless. A scheduled flight will leave whether there are two or 200 passengers on board.
Because of the price of long-haul travel, the type of passenger is different, Collins adds. They may be more adventurous, but if it is their one visit to a faraway destination they won't be keen to leave the whole thing to the luck of the draw.
"The high end of the market is not affected so much," says Collins. "People with money will book in advance regardless. They will want to make sure they get where they want and they will pay to get it."
Besides, not everybody can wait until the last minute to book. It may suit independent travellers, but it does not suit families who need to plan well in advance. Nevertheless, says Collins: "If you're flexible and prepared to wait, then you can get a good package deal. There are some out there."
However, Barry Walsh, of Joe Walsh Tours, says that Middle East and even Far East markets have picked up after some customer hesitancy.
"Booking was slow earlier in the year, but it has picked up over the last month. We've recovered from Iraq and SARS, although there will be some late deals because of the shortfall caused by the early part of the year. Normally, a huge amount of people will already have booked, but this year I've met a lot of people who haven't. If you haven't, though, you really need to have. June and July is peak season, when the big money comes in."
The deals do tend to be less dramatic than for package deals closer to home. The price of a flight to Australia may drop from €800 to €699, but it will not drop and drop until the plane is filled.
"You don't just wake up and decide that your going to Bali tomorrow," insists Walsh. "These deals are not as prominent. It's not like walking past a shop and seeing a week in Majorca advertised. Lots of the deals mean you have to go in, say, three days' time. It's not a late-booking market, so it's hard to quantify how many people try it."
Of course, if you book a late flight, you may then need accommodation at short notice.
Michael Collins recommends booking that through hotel websites as they tend to charge lower rates than the agents.
If vaccinations are required, it will further complicate matters. While Dublin's Tropical Medical Bureau say that travellers should receive their doses a minimum of two weeks before travelling, for some diseases - such as rabies - they recommend that people are immunised at least five weeks in advance.
Ultimately, our wanderlust is working against us. Global crises have done little to affect that. Transatlantic flights are almost fully booked this summer. Almost twice as many Irish will visit South Africa this year as did last.
"The Irish market is resilient in a way that the US is not," says Michael Collins. "There, they stop travelling, while the Irish will wait and procrastinate, but will eventually go. We're almost the backpackers of Europe."