Hogan to lead way for FG while county allegiances may play part

CONSTITUENCY PROFILE: CARLOW KILKENNY:CHANGE IS undoubtedly coming to this constituency, where Government parties secured four out of five seats in 2007. Fine Gael will take at least two seats, possibly three, and Labour looks set to secure a position.

The last general election brought a spectacular success for Fianna Fáil, when it retained three seats in this large constituency which covers two counties. One of the three sitting Fianna Fail TDs, Carlow-based MJ Nolan, is now stepping down.

Some local observers go so far as to suggest neither Fianna Fáil’s John McGuinness nor Bobby Aylward will retain their seats. Party canvassers admit they are facing a frosty reception on the doorsteps. However, as the constituency is a five-seater, it seems likely at least one Fianna Fáil TD will survive.

McGuinness and Aylward scored almost equal numbers of first-preference votes in 2007, with 11,635 for McGuinness and 11,600 for Aylward.

McGuinness, a prominent critic of former Fianna Fáil leader Taoiseach Brian Cowen, was dropped as a minister of state in April 2009 but brought in from the cold recently by new leader Micheál Martin.

Local observers say McGuinness’s previous “outsider” status makes him more transfer- friendly than most Fianna Fáil candidates and his appointment as front-bench spokesman on small business has provided something of a profile boost. However, others argue Aylward, brother of MEP Liam Aylward, is more in touch with the core, rural Fianna Fáil vote which, although diminished, still exists.

Mary White became the first woman elected to represent Carlow-Kilkenny, as well as the Green Party’s first woman TD, in 2007.

Elected on the ninth and final count last time, it is difficult to see how she can survive, although she has been stressing her Carlow credentials in a constituency where all the TDs could end up being from Kilkenny.

Fine Gael’s Phil Hogan is safe, with Senator John Paul Phelan expected to join him in the Dáil, having missed out narrowly in 2007. Their running mate Pat Deering will be pitching for votes from his county and the GAA community and will also be in the reckoning on a good day for the party, although vote-management has let the party down in the constituency before.

Labour Councillor Ann Phelan is tipped for success and it is possible her popularity could help her running mate Des Hurley, although the opinion polls indicate things are not quite going Labour’s way at present.

Sinn Féin’s strength has grown here. If a situation were to emerge in which Fine Gael could not secure three seats and Fianna Fáil performed very badly, Sinn Féin’s Kathleen Funchion could emerge to take the fifth and final seat.

CARLOW KILKENNY 5 SEATS

OUTGOING TDs:Bobby Aylward (FF) John McGuinness (FF) MJ Nolan (FF) Phil Hogan (FG) Mary White (G)

CANDIDATES:Bobby Aylward (FF) John McGuinness (FF) Jennifer Murnane O'Connor (FF) Phil Hogan (FG) John-Paul Phelan (FG) Pat Deering (FG) Mary White (G) Des Hurley (Lab) Ann Phelan (Lab) Kathleen Funchion (SF) John Cassin (SF) Conor MacLiam (ULA) Johnny Couchman (Ind/Other) John Dalton (Ind/Other) Stephen Kelly (Ind/Other) Ramie Leahy (Ind/Other) David Murphy (Ind/Other) John O'Hara (Ind/Other) Noel G Walsh (Ind/Other)

LOCAL ISSUES:Unemployment and emigration are huge issues, given the large number of construction workers previously employed in the constituency. Fallout from the decision to stop sugar production in Carlow continues.

VERDICT: FG 3, Lab 1, FF 1