MR JOHN Major is on course for a general election on May 1st, despite the Conservative Party's shattering defeat in the Wirral South by election.
The government's ongoing deal with the Ulster Unionists effectively killed off Labour hopes of forcing an early contest, just hours before Mr Ben Chapman claimed the former Tory stronghold with a spectacular majority of 7,888.
Mr Chapman - a member of Mr Tony Blair's "New Labour" for less than a year -polled 22,767 votes. The Conservative candidate, Mr Les Byram, defending a 1992 majority of 8,183, trailed with 14,879 while the Liberal Democrat's Ms Flo Clucas took 4,357.
This was the 18th by election defeat for the Tories in this parliament. And the turnout, at 73 per cent, was the second highest so denying the ritual Tory claim that their supporters had stayed at home to register their protest.
The swing of 17 per cent to Labour, if repeated in a general election, would give Mr Tony Blair a landslide majority in the next House of Commons.
But Mr Blair's claim on power was put on hold by yesterday's strategic confirmation of an enhanced role for the Northern Ireland Grand Committee at Westminster. Sir Patrick Mayhew last night wrote to the North's party leaders confirming that in future the Grand Committee will be able to question ministers; conduct substantive adjournment debates; hold the equivalent of second and third reading debates on legislation exclusive to the North; and sit in the North.
After the announcement the Labour Chief Whip, Mr Donal Dewar, all but conceded he would be unable to force Mr Major out with a "no confidence" vote in the Commons.
While the Scottish National Party signalled its determination to force the issue - in a debate on March 10th - government business managers have apparently ensured the motion effecting the Northern Ireland reform will follow that.
So while Downing Street and the UUP maintained their habitual denial of any deal, it seemed clear that Mr Major had bought the necessary time to achieve the election date of his choice.
Mr David Trimble, the UUP leader, yesterday confirmed his belief that Mr Major will announce his intentions at the end of the week after next, to the annual meeting of the Conservative Central Council.
For "selfish, personal" reasons he said he would prefer a May poll, and ventured: "I don't get the feeling Labour will be going all out to bring the government down." And Mr Dewar conceded: "I am sorry we cannot go ahead. I would have liked to have gone ahead but there is no point in putting down a motion [of no confidence] without the Ulster Unionists."
Labour and the Liberal Democrats seem certain to refuse to back the SNP motion, knowing that the result would be a morale boosting victory for Mr Major.
But recovering Tory morale, and establishing belief in his reelect ion prospects, will prove a tall order for Mr Major.