Experts to review strategy for flu pandemic

Dublin conference: The Republic's preparedness for a flu pandemic will be examined by international experts at a conference …

Dublin conference: The Republic's preparedness for a flu pandemic will be examined by international experts at a conference in Dublin this week. It coincides with increasing global disquiet arising from the number of human fatalities caused by the avian flu virus in Asia.

The conference was initially scheduled in response to concerns about the imminence of a world flu pandemic, which some scientists believe is long overdue.

It is being staged in UCD and organised by Prof William Hall, director of the Virus Reference Laboratory and professor of medical microbiology at the university.

"The goal of our meeting is to bring in international experts in the field to advise healthcare workers here on our current understanding of a flu pandemic," Prof Hall said.

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The outbreak of avian flu in South-East Asia has killed 32 of the 45 humans it has infected.

There is particular concern that human-to-human transfer of the avian flu may have occurred between two Vietnamese brothers, one of whom died. If it transpired that one of the men infected the other, the virus will have crossed "species barrier" (from birds to humans), thereby increasing the likelihood of a worldwide pandemic.

The World Health Organisation has warned that such a pandemic could cause up to seven million deaths. It is especially concerned that the avian flu might infect someone who is also suffering from the human form of flu. This would create the ideal conditions for the avian flu to swap genes with the human flu, making it far more infectious and almost certainly leading to a pandemic.

The last pandemic occurred in 1968. It originated in Hong Kong and is estimated to have killed 700,000 people. The most serious flu outbreak ever happened in 1918-1919, when 40 million people died worldwide.

Prof Hall, who is also chairman of the Government's expert committee on influenza pandemic planning, said the Republic has had a pandemic plan in place for some time.

"Our main protection in the event of a pandemic will be anti-viral therapy," he said, adding that the national plan was constantly updated as new information became available.

But experts have warned that air travel will make it difficult to contain an outbreak of avian flu in humans.

The British government is reported to have drawn up plans to quarantine victims in secure residential accommodation, with the mass evacuation of healthy people from cities to be considered "as a last resort".

Crucial to a strategy of containment would be the use of screening centres at airports in areas of Asia where cases arise in significant numbers - with a view to preventing cases getting to Europe, according to UK government officials.

The idea was first considered in China during the SARS outbreak two years ago, which infected more than 8,500 people in at least 29 countries. - (Additional reporting - The Guardian Service)