Covid-19: Lack of clarity about where we are going a cause for despair

It is hard to think of a grimmer week in the grim history of this pandemic than the one that has just passed.

The graph of cases is rising vertically in most age groups, the models that served to give some inkling of future trends are broken, and there is little succour to be found elsewhere, with infections soaring across much of Europe.

In reality things are not nearly as bad as they were last January; we are still at under one-third of hospitalisations, less than half of ICU admissions and about one-eighth of Covid-19 deaths compared to the peaks recorded that month.

Against this, however, is the growing realisation across swathes of society that this virus is going to be with us for a long time to come. As Germany's star virologist Christian Drosten said this week, the end of the pandemic for his country is "miles away".

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And because the virus is sticking around so too are the measures needed to control it. Vaccines are a powerful tool, but either we invested too much hope in them or the Delta variant came along and ripped up the original playbook. Probably both, but whatever the reasons other control strategies are still needed.

Vaccine immunity

Another cause for despair is the lack of clarity about where we are going. The National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) is this weekend rebooting its models, because the old ones weren’t working; for one they didn’t take into account the now widespread evidence of waning vaccine immunity.

So while cases were forecast to peak later this month, officials have clearly lost confidence in that scenario. It’s not specifically that the figures may be worse; it’s that no one knows what will happen.

In fact, case numbers appeared to plateau over the past week, since a peak of just over 5,000 occurred on November 5th (under 4,000 cases were reported that day, but there was a backlog). However, a backlog of tests has been building in the system, hence Friday evening’s figure of almost 5,500 cases.

Stephen Donnelly is the Minister for Health, not the Minister for Nightclubbing or Christmas Parties. Basic personal common sense cannot be outsourced to Government

The worsening situation has sparked more of the usual political over-and-back this week, with another bout of the circular arguments over antigen testing and criticisms of the level of investment in hospitals and critical care. Yet Ireland is far from alone in having to cancel elective work to make space for rising numbers of Covid-19 patients, and fresh restrictions are being introduced in countries across Europe.

Once again the debate has got lost in the detail while failing to see the bigger picture. Stephen Donnelly is the Minister for Health, not the Minister for Nightclubbing or Christmas Parties. Basic personal common sense cannot be outsourced to Government.

Next spring

Drosten believes countries with high vaccination rates – such as Ireland – might escape the pandemic by next spring. Maybe. But until then we are going to need the right mix of measures to keep a lid on Covid-19 while allowing society to remain open to the greatest extent possible.

It isn’t about one measure alone; it’s about a multiplicity of actions that, together, reduce the risk of transmission. Most of these actions are drearily familiar to us, but there is the hope of new tools, notably antiviral pills that promise to forestall serious illness.

Nphet appears finally to have bitten the antigen testing bullet this time by recommending it for many “high-risk” activities, from going to the cinema to sharing a car. The only way this will work is if tests are repeated, and if they are done properly.

As for cost, we’ll either pay individually or, if they are provided free, collectively as taxpayers.