The Government will this morning publish the long-awaited Green Paper on abortion, which the Taoiseach has pledged will lead to another referendum on the subject.
The Green Paper is not expected to make any recommendations or suggest a form of words for another referendum. However, it is believed to outline several possible options for dealing with the abortion issue, including an outright ban on abortion in all circumstances, the introduction of a liberal regime in this country and the continuation of the status quo.
The current situation - following the ruling in the 1992 Supreme Court ruling in the X-case - permits abortions to be carried out in the State in situations where there is a threat to the life of the mother, including suicide.
The Green Paper - which is a discussion document, and unlike a White Paper, does not contain specific commitments on legislation - will be sent for consideration to the All Party Committee on the Constitution, which then will report back to the Government on what course of action should be taken. A Government spokesman confirmed to The Irish Times last week that it is the Taoiseach's belief that "no matter what happens there will be another abortion referendum". Political pressure is now likely to increase on Mr Ahern, with the independent TDs supporting his minority coalition Government seeking a firm commitment to hold a referendum before the next general election.
In recent weeks, independent TDs Mildred Fox and Harry Blaney have sought reassurances that an abortion referendum will be held in the lifetime of the current government. Ms Fox has given the Government six months to say when a third abortion referendum will take place.
There is no indication of how long the All-Party Committee on the Constitution will take in their deliberations on the Green Paper. It is understood the committee, chaired by Fianna Fail TD Brian Lenihan, will hold public hearings at which interested groups will be asked to make submissions on the Green Paper.
During the 1997 general election the Taoiseach indicated his preference that the electorate be aware of what legislative changes would be introduced if a constitutional amendment on abortion was passed in a referendum.
The most recent figures from the British Office for National Statistics indicated that almost 6,000 women giving Irish addresses had abortions in Britain last year.