Everyone expects Labour to win Wednesday's by-election in Dublin South Central. And so they should. Dr Mary Upton, sister of the late Deputy Pat Upton, should bring them their third by-election victory of this Dail. If they fail, it will be very bad news indeed for the party, coming on top of poor results in last June's local elections.
FF is the main competition. The numbers in the 1997 general election and the bad blood between old Labour, particularly strong here, and the DL faction, means an advantage to its man Michael Mulcahy. But the fact that two large hospitals, the Coombe and Crumlin are in the constituency and a third, St James's is on the border, is not good news for the Government. In addition, it is predicted that Sinn Fein will do well enough to establish a base for next time, when four seats become five.
Once the Dail by-election is out of the way, thoughts will turn to the two Seanad by-elections caused by the resignation of Labour's Pat Gallagher and the death of FF's Paddy McGowan. Only members of the Oireachtas have the vote, and it is expected that both by-elections will be held together at the end of next month. Talks are expected shortly to discuss a joint election, and the moving of the writs by Labour's Joe Costello and FF's Donie Cassidy. There is no external nominating body in either case, so things should move speedily. Because of the numbers, FF can easily take both seats and there is much competition for the nomination, with serious Dail hopefuls heading both lists. The PDs are unlikely to contest either seat.
Labour stalwarts, however, are in bullish mood. They feel that since one of the vacant seats was theirs, they should keep it, and their strategy is to seek a non-party candidate of national standing that they can persuade FG, the Independents and possibly a few FF-ers to support. Likely persons, North and South, are already being considered and sounded out.