Voters are warming again to Bertie and his Government writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent.
As he sat down to breakfast in Shanghai this morning, even the Taoiseach must have been surprised at the speed at which the makeover of his Government's image has produced results.
In June, on the eve of the local government and European Parliament elections, just one in three voters said they were happy with the Government's performance. Now, seven months later, over half of voters are happy with the Coalition.
In the interim we have seen the Government's careful recasting of its image.
First came a period of humility involving much talk of how the Government parties were going to listen to the voters. Then came the dispatch of Charlie McCreevy to Brussels, paving the way for a Cabinet reshuffle. Possibly exaggerating to make his point, Bertie Ahern staked his claim to be Ireland's last socialist, and finally came the Budget, with money targeted at disability and social projects.
The results are clear. The two polls in a row since the June elections have seen steady increases in support for the Government, the Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil. The Tánaiste increased her approval rating in October, and has retained that increase after her move to health. The Progressive Democrats' national support has remained relatively static, rising slightly in this poll. As always, it is performances in key constituencies which will determine the fate of small parties such as the PDs.
The poll suggests that the Government has entered a new phase in terms of its electoral support.
Political historians will note that after the 2002 general election the Government suffered a major fall in support, with voters believing they had been misled. This latest poll and the last poll in October suggest that the historians may say that this period ended with the 2004 local government and European Parliament elections. Because support for the Government, Taoiseach and Fianna Fáil are now at their highest since the 2002 general election.
This is the continuation of a trend which started in October last, and they are closer to the support levels they achieved during their 1997-2002 period in office rather that the 2002-2004 period during which many commentators began to believe they were destined for a loss of power at the next election.
But if these results for the Government suggest that there is no such thing as an irreversible trend, the results for Sinn Féin suggest otherwise. At 11 per cent, Sinn Féin support remains virtually unchanged, down a marginal one percentage point since October. Approval of the performance of Mr Gerry Adams as Sinn Féin leader is down from 51 per cent to 42 per cent. This is lower than his usual position, but not dramatically so, and he was at the same level last May.
Sinn Féin's support has, therefore, held up remarkably after the Northern Bank raid.
The PSNI chief constable, the Taoiseach and the British Prime Minister all say they believe that the IRA stole the £26.5 million taken in that raid. Senior politicians in the Republic - notably the Minister for Justice, Mr McDowell - have made scathing attacks on the democratic credentials of the Sinn Féin leadership, suggesting it is associated with violence.
For Sinn Féin, electorally this does not seem to make much difference. Party support has held up, and while still most attractive to younger, urban males, the party is also drawing support from those in middle age and in the higher socio-economic groups.
The apparent immunity of Sinn Féin supporters to the condemnation which has been hurled at the party's leadership in recent weeks may reflect scepticism among some sections of the electorate over the certainty with which the political and security establishment has blamed the IRA for the robbery.
It may also reflect a perception in the Republic that IRA activity in Northern Ireland takes place at a remove from Sinn Féin in the Republic.
And it may be that for some voters even if the Sinn Féin leadership had prior knowledge of a robbery carried out by its associates, this does not matter.
For Fine Gael and Labour, the main components of the alternative government that is beginning to take shape, the poll is pretty depressing.
Fine Gael had an excellent election result last June, and saw its opinion poll rating creep modestly but steadily upwards through 2004. This time the party has gone backwards to 22 per cent - its disastrous May 2002 general election result.
Even if one accepts the Fine Gael argument that the party tends to do a few points better in an election than an opinion poll immediately preceding it, this figures leaves it a long way from getting the kind of lift essential if it is to have a chance of returning to government. Enda Kenny's personal approval rating received a significant boost last October, an increase that is largely retained in this poll.
For Labour there is stasis too. The 13 per cent it scored in this poll is the same as that achieved last October, which was the lowest figure for it in an Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll since the 2002 general election.
Pat Rabbitte's personal satisfaction rating is unchanged at 49 per cent.
The Green Party continues to hold steady at 4 per cent - as with the PDs, national opinion polls offer a limited means of assessing the prospects of small parties, which depend on a small number of constituencies to determine how they will do.
The poll will give great heart to the Government parties as they look forward to two by-elections in the next few months, although no government party has won a by-election since Fianna Fáil's Mr Noel Treacy won Galway East in 1982.
However, if a general election had been held this week, the Coalition would have had a reasonable chance of re-election for a third term. And there are two more years of caring Bertie yet to come.
One can almost see his smile stretching all the way from Shanghai to Drumcondra.