Good omens for Patten from SF and SDLP

Chris Patten was in both blunt and conciliatory form when addressing republicans and nationalists yesterday

Chris Patten was in both blunt and conciliatory form when addressing republicans and nationalists yesterday. "It is imperative that Catholic, nationalist and republican politicians and leaders get off the fence. It is time to support policing if we want a more peaceful, and stable and prosperous community," he said. More sensitively, he quoted a sermon of Bishop MacNeice, uncle of the poet Louis MacNeice, when he said: "Forget the things that are behind that you may be the better able to put all your strength into the tasks of today and tomorrow."

Both those remarks were addressed to republicans, the SDLP, the Catholic Church, the GAA, and other Catholic community leaders who have influence on the general nationalist bloc. If the proposed Northern Ireland Police Service is to be religiously balanced, then it is up to such people to persuade Catholics to sign up to this "new beginning".

Some ordinary republicans quoted in vox pops yesterday preferred to hark back to the past than look to the future. "It's all cosmetic, a change in name won't make any difference", was typical of a particular republican view, although others were more positive.

The republican leadership was considered in its reaction. It will listen to the concern of its grassroots but will also carefully read the 128-page report, A New Beginning: Policing in Northern Ireland.

READ MORE

Nonetheless, the message from Martin McGuinness and Bairbre de Brun, who led the Sinn Fein reaction to the report yesterday, was that republicans for the moment will stay on the fence, as will some others.

"I would like young republicans from Swatragh and Pomeroy and the Bogside and Ballymurphy to be able to join a new policing service," said Mr McGuinness yesterday. So, did he anticipate a favourable response to the report? "The jury is out on that," he said. Certainly, the republican response to the Patten report fell very far short of the clarion cry to man the barricades. Instead they staged token anti-RUC protests outside four police stations in Belfast yesterday, which was predictable.

If Patten were unacceptable to them, we would all know about it by now. That will have encouraged the former Hong Kong governor and the British and Irish governments.

A measured republican response often translates better as a guarded welcome, although Martin McGuinness and Gerry Adams have more wit than to characterise their views in such generous fashion. It's fair to say that this report is not causing Messrs Adams and McGuinness the same degree of grief it is causing David Trimble.

But republicans were also anxious to emphasise that, just because the report is distressful to the Ulster Unionist Party, it doesn't mean Sinn Fein will be cock-a-hoop.

Republicans as usual will be watching their backs, conscious that dissident organisations like Republican Sinn Fein and the Thirty-Two County Sovereignty Movement will be screaming "sell-out". These organisations will focus on Mr Patten's line that the RUC is being transformed but not disbanded.

Sinn Fein will also test the feeling on the ground and assess whether, through some grassroots manipulation, it will be able to argue that this is a good deal. If it can, it probably will sell the proposals.

Middle-ground nationalists, represented by the SDLP, had some reservations - particularly about the 10-year period it will take to bring Catholic representation in the Northern Ireland Police Service to 30 per cent and the continued use of plastic bullets - but were generally quite enthusiastic.

Catholics are unlikely to be heading in their droves to police recruiting offices, but if the report is implemented then nationalist representation must increase dramatically, as far as the SDLP is concerned.

"The report, taken in totality and implemented faithfully and speedily, contains the basis for the objectives of the Good Friday agreement to be attained in terms of achieving a police service which can attract and sustain the whole community's support," said Mr Seamus Mallon, the SDLP deputy leader.

This coming from a politician who for years has insisted that the only hope of a successful political outcome hinged on the creation of a new policing system. Mr Mallon, it is evident, is very happy with the Patten report. The Bishop of Down and Connor, Dr Patrick Walsh, speaking in the absence of Archbishop Sean Brady, who is in Italy, said the report was "an important step forward" and urged everyone to give the document "honest and serious consideration". If the wind is right, the Catholic Church is almost certain to urge support for a new police service.

The GAA, in the light of Mr Patten's call for the repeal of the ban on British soldiers and RUC officers joining the organisation - strongly endorsed by Dr Maurice Hayes, a member of Mr Patten's commission, and an ardent Down GAA supporter - will also soon have to get off the fence.

To use Mr Patten's language, the report provides "more gain than pain" for nationalists. Dropping the RUC name, badge and flying of the Union flag will proportionately and emotionally be as welcome to nationalists as it will be upsetting to unionists.

The positive recruitment drive in favour of nationalists, the greater co-operation with the Garda, the new oath shorn of its imperial dimension, the closing of the Castlereagh, Gough and Strand Road interrogation centres, the amalgamation of the Special Branch into the broader police service - all these proposals will be an encouragement to nationalists to give the new service a chance.

But there's also a debit side. Republicans in particular will be antagonistic to the bar on former paramilitaries joining the new force and to Mr Patten's insistence that the force is not being disbanded.

The SDLP, it seems, has bought into the proposals. Sinn Fein, based on the mixed reaction from grassroots republicans, will take its time, although staying on the fence too long will prove uncomfortable - Mr Adams and Mr McGuinness will need a very strong argument to justify rejection of the report. If the Mitchell review of the Belfast Agreement is successful, and Sinn Fein takes its place in the executive - which will be partly responsible for running the new force - then Sinn Fein would almost certainly run with the new police service.

The omens are quite good for Mr Patten and his report on the nationalist and republican side.