SPAIN is heading for its first right of centre government in 13 years, if yesterday's opinion polls, reflect the way the electorate is going to vote on Sunday.
A survey for the leading Spanish daily, El Pais, showed Mr Jose Maria Aznar's Partido Popular (PP) holding a nine point lead over Mr Felipe Gonzalez's ruling Socialist Party (PSOE), and winning a majority in 34 of Spain's 52 provinces.
Last week another poll showed Mr Gonzalez narrowing the gap by three points but, despite strong public appearances, power seems to slipping from his hands.
The latest poll would give Mr Aznar up to 178 seats, two more than he needs for an absolute majority. But while he is publicly triumphalist, privately some supporters members are still cautious.
"You have to remember that something similar was happening in 1993," a party worker told The Irish Times yesterday, "when Gonzalez overtook us at the last minute."
It was also notable that Mr Rodrigo Rato, congressional spokesman for the PP and tipped as Mr Aznar's choice for Minister for Finance, scrupulously avoided making rash assumptions when he addressed a gathering of activists on Spain's serious drugs problem in a Madrid hotel.
He called for "a culture of rejection" towards all forms of drug taking, echoing the "Just Say No" campaign in the US and taking the PSOE to task for its "permissiveness".
The PSOE legalised personal use of narcotics, in public and private, in the 1980s, and only banned public use again under pressure from the PP in 1992.
Speaking of being in government, Mr Rato used `if' rather than "when", and said he would press for similar policies from the opposition benches "if necessary".
In a hard hitting speech at the weekend, Mr Gonzalez appealed to voters on the left of the Socialists to come to his rescue as in the past.
For the moment, however, the PP can savour the prospect of seeing the PSOE lose in every province except Barcelona, Caceres and Seville, with its once solid support melting away across most of its Andalusian heart lands.
The communist led Izuierda Unida is set to take 27 seats, nine more than it now holds, but no where near enough to challenge the PSOE's projected 128 seats, which should guarantee the Socialists continued leadership of the Spanish left.
Among the autonomous nationalities, the Catalan Nationalists look like being punished for supporting the PSOE's minority government, while the pro ETA Basque radicals of Herri Batasuna may lose a quarter of their voters, reflecting the revulsion engendered by ETA's most recent killings.
The most significant factor in the poll, however, may well be the 14 per cent of voters who still have not made up their minds.