German exports should approach record levels next year after beating forecasts in June, data showed, in the clearest sign yet that foreign demand is driving a stronger than expected recovery in Europe's largest economy.
Exports rose by 3.8 per cent, the Federal Statistics Office said today, and analysts said the figure underpinned expectations that gross domestic product data due this week would show growth accelerated in the second quarter after a harsh winter cooled activity at the start of the year.
German exports should jump 11 per cent in 2010 as a whole and 8 per cent in 2011, meaning they would likely almost reach 2008's record level next year, the chambers of industry and commerce (DIHK) said in a separate survey.
The DIHK said imports had also risen sharply, suggesting a corresponding pickup in hitherto sluggish domestic activity which economy minister Rainer Bruederle said pointed to a more broad-based upturn.
"Foreign trade will likely have contributed significantly to German economic growth," said Simon Junker at Unicredit. "Today's figures suggest that even our optimistic forecast of 1.5 per cent growth versus the first quarter will be exceeded."
The consensus forecast in a Reuters poll of 34 economists is for growth to accelerate to 1.3 percent in the second quarter from 0.2 per cent in the January-March period.
The seasonally adjusted rise in exports in June beat expectations for a 1.0 per cent gain and took the trade surplus to €12.3 billion from €10.6 billion in May.
Imports rose 1.9 per cent on the month, smashing the consensus forecast for a 2.0 per cent drop.
Separate data for August from researchers Sentix showed investor sentiment in the euro zone rose by much more than expected to its highest level since December 2007.
German manufacturing orders surpassed expectations in June, rising 3.2 per cent on the month, data showed last week.
Reuters