MINISTER FOR Justice Dermot Ahern has signalled that fewer people will be recruited to the Garda this year than previously planned because of the weakened Government finances.
In a series of answers to parliamentary questions, Mr Ahern said that intakes to Templemore beyond next month were in doubt.
"Calculations on the scale of the future intakes will be made closer to the relevant time, taking into account wider Government policy on the public service," he said in replies to Labour Party deputies.
Pressure on Garda numbers will be exacerbated further in the second half of the year when a spike in age-related retirements from the force will see more members leaving than at any time over the past three years.
The developments - which are likely to lead to a drop in the strength of the force this year - are expected to draw strong criticism from the Opposition and Garda representative associations.
It comes at a time when gun crime and drug dealing are at record levels and total recorded crime is also increasing, albeit modestly.
The Minister has indicated for the first time that previously announced plans to recruit 400 new gardaí annually will be reconsidered.
Over the past two years just over 1,000 trainees per year have entered the Garda College, Templemore, Co Tipperary. Those numbers represented record levels and drove the expansion of the force from 12,000 to a planned 15,000 members.
There are currently 14,445 attested members - those with full powers - with an additional 945 in training. The trainees will qualify on a phased basis over the next two years.
Even if the long-promised 15,000 full attested strength is achieved late this year, the combination of a spike in retirements and reduced recruitment will see numbers immediately fall back.
In October's Budget it was announced that the annual intake of gardaí to Templemore was being scaled back from just over 1,000 recruits per year to 400 recruits, in four intakes of 100.
The first class of 100 entered Templemore in November.
Mr Ahern has now cast doubt on whether these intakes would continue on the same scale.
He said a "similar intake" to that in November was planned for next month.
However, he said intakes to Templemore beyond next month had to take into account the "wider Government policy on the public service".
Even if the previously promised 400-strong annual intake is maintained, numbers in the force would be marginally in decline by the end of the year because of the spike in retirements.
If the number of recruits falls below 400, Garda numbers will decline much more significantly.
The spike in retirements will take place because members who were able to remain working when the retirement age was increased from 57 to 60 years almost three years ago are due to begin retiring on age grounds in the second half of this year.
Because fewer members have had to retire for age-related reasons since mid-2006, when the retirement age was changed, the numbers leaving the force had dropped from an average of 470 members in 2004 and 2005 to 289 members in 2007 and 239 members in the first nine months of 2008.
However, when age-related retirements begin again later this year, the total figures leaving An Garda Síochána will return to numbers above 400. That means retirees and other departures will outnumber those joining, even if the promised 400 recruits per year intake is maintained.