From breakdown to breakthrough

This year the Northern Ireland political pendulum oscillated between breakthrough and breakdown

This year the Northern Ireland political pendulum oscillated between breakthrough and breakdown. And the politicians packed in a lot: perpetual crisis of course, plus elections, resignations, redesignations, suspensions and reinstatements, talks, threats of heaves, Ulster Unionist Council convocations, a brawl, the mother of all policing rows, and actual IRA decommissioning.

This year too John Hume and Seamus Mallon ended long, arduous, frustrating, but ultimately successful careers as SDLP leader and deputy leader. They handed over to Mark Durkan who, as well as seeking to re-energise the SDLP, is now David Trimble's sidekick as Deputy First Minister. John Taylor and Ken Maginnis bowed out of House of Commons politics, shifting over to the House of Lords. Sean Neeson stepped down as Alliance leader to be replaced by David Ford. David Trimble hung in. Ian Paisley goes on and on. The DUP "rotated" its ministers. The political wing of the UDA, the Ulster Democratic Party, disbanded. The RUC gave way to the Police Service of Northern Ireland.

This year opened with the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, yet again instigating talks and urging the pro-Belfast Agreement parties to strike a deal on the four issues that were also the main issues last year - decommissioning, demilitarisation, policing and safeguarding the institutions of the Good Friday deal.

In the midst of all the negotiations and to-ing and fro-ing between Belfast, London, Dublin, the Northern secretary, Peter Mandelson, was forced to exit his stately pile at Hillsborough. Ostensibly it was because he mishandled a passport application, but on this side of the Irish Sea it seemed it was because the Sun and some other London newspapers, which Tony Blair respects or fears, absolutely loathed him.

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In place of the plummy tones of Mr Mandelson, Northerners grew accustomed to the Glasgow burr of John Reid, and, far more perplexingly, figure out how to reconcile the fact that he was a Celtic-supporting, Catholic, British unionist Scotsman.

Gerry Adams and David Trimble and John Hume and the Yes politicians talked through to springtime. On the sidelines Ian Paisley snarled and plotted to undermine the agreement while simultaneously ensuring his DUP party could enjoy its Mercs and Perks, as the late John Healy used to say. And as the buds burst into flower we were as far on as we ever were, stuck in a rut.

This process was compared to putting four wheels on a stationary car, the wheels being the aforementioned issues to be resolved. For most of last year, all we could see were the bare hubcaps of this vehicle.

The car was stored in the garage through May and June as politicians fought Westminster and local election battles. And pity David Trimble, who had to try to maintain party unity in the face of insubordination from the likes of Jeffrey Donaldson and William Ross, who lost his Westminster seat, as well as withstanding the challenge from the DUP - and with nothing from the IRA to show for his genuine if idiosyncratic support for the agreement.

It was no shock therefore that the Ulster Unionist Party was damaged at the polls, but the extent of its losses was surprising. The UUP saw its House of Commons representation decrease from nine to six seats while the DUP jumped from three to five seats. In the local elections the UUP dropped 31 seats while the DUP won an additional 40 seats.

And how did David Trimble survive as UUP leader after such a setback? Because prior to the election he issued a post-dated July 1st resignation letter, to take effect in the absence of IRA decommissioning. That got him through his Ulster Unionist Council meeting in June. Anti-agreement unionists urged Jeffrey Donaldson to challenge him, but Jeffrey balked, allowing Trimble to remain.

On the nationalist side the republican juggernaut trundled on remorselessly. Before the election John Hume said Sinn FΘin would never overtake the SDLP: but that's precisely what it did in percentage terms of the vote. The SDLP held its three seats while Mr Adams and Mr McGuinness were joined as MPs by Michelle Gildernew and Pat Doherty. The SDLP, by virtue of the vagaries of proportional representation, only lost three council seats and still has more local government seats than Sinn FΘin. But Sinn FΘin gained 34 extra council positions.

In July we trooped over to Weston Park. After the week of negotiations there was no detail, but a feeling that there could be real progress. One journalist outside Weston Park cautioned, "If the politicians saw light at the end of the tunnel they'd buy more tunnel."

In August the British government published the Weston Park proposals that addressed the issues of removing British army towers, policing and ensuring Sinn FΘin ministers could not be banned from meeting their Dublin ministerial counterparts.

Mr Ahern and Mr Blair politely and carefully wondered if the IRA would now move on arms. We'll tell you how we will dispose of arms but not when we will do it, responded P. O'Neill. It wasn't enough for David Trimble and amid much recrimination - and the IRA refusing to have further dealing with the decommissioning body - the Assembly and Executive were suspended for a day and reactivated for six weeks.

The governments and most everybody else ganged up on Sinn FΘin but it was impervious to the criticism. There was a sense of republican hubris, that they were on a roll, and could do no wrong politically. But with pride comes the fall. The Colombia arrests hit the headlines, then the hijackers crashed planes into the twin towers in New York.

Just over a week later the IRA re-engaged with Gen John de Chastelain. There was another one-day suspension and six-weeks reinstatement. Mr Trimble threatened to withdraw his ministers from the Executive but through political sleight of hand bought time to see if the IRA would take action on arms.

On October 23rd the IRA finally bit the bullet, so to speak. It was portrayed as a great victory for the peace process and particularly for Mr Trimble - not that his party over-indulged in celebrating. Still, at the beginning of December that secret act of IRA decommissioning ensured David Trimble another victory over No Ulster Unionists at yet another Ulster Unionist Council meeting.

There was much talk of an erosion of the British identity and Northern Ireland becoming a "cold house" for unionism.

In November Pauline Armitage and Peter Weir had their Andy Warhol 15 minutes of fame by denying David Trimble easy re-election as First Minster, but the Women's Coalition and - eventually - the Alliance Party rallied to his cause by redesignating as unionists.

This prompted the "brawl in the hall" which left a few sore shins: but it paled into insignificance when compared with this month's gargantuan struggle between PSNI Chief Constable Ronnie Flanagan and Police Ombudsman Nuala O'Loan.

Considering the numerous opportunities for disaster that presented themselves this year, survival was quite an achievement.