The French economy is heading for a difficult first quarter but might avoid negative growth, Finance Minister Laurent Fabius said today.
Mr Fabius implied indirectly that the spending of cash hoarded from the black economy before the launch of euro money on January 1, to be followed by six weeks of circulation of the old franc alongside the euro, was giving vital support to the economy.
And France was even less likely to experience two quarters of contraction in a row, he said, minimising the risk of recession, defined as two quarters of negative growth.
Mr Fabius told French radio Europe 1that he was "almost sure" that there would be no quarterly contraction, and still less chance of two quarterly contractions in a row.
But he warned that the first quarter "looks like being a difficult quarter but then there will be a recovery - at the end of the year or in the second half growth should be much stronger."
Mr Fabius said that France should achieve growth of about 2 per cent in 2001.
AFP