Fragile signs of peace nourish hopes

The beleaguered residents of Belgrade have slept soundly for two nights now; the air raid sirens are less frequent, no bombs …

The beleaguered residents of Belgrade have slept soundly for two nights now; the air raid sirens are less frequent, no bombs have hit the capital, the electricity and water are slowly returning, and the Serbian airwaves are filled with images of diplomats at work.

Peace, in other words, is in the air, but vulnerable to a sudden changing of the winds.

The signs of concession have been coming steadily since last weekend, when President Slobodan Milosevic agreed to free the three captured US soldiers after a visit by the Rev Jesse Jackson. Three days later, and after heavy bombing which left much of Serbia without electricity, Mr Milosevic allowed the Kosovo Albanian leader, Mr Ibrahim Rugova, to leave Yugoslavia with his family, apparently without restriction. It had been widely believed that Mr Rugova was under house arrest in Belgrade.

Serb television, which has for weeks focused on the effects of NATO bombing, with particular emphasis on civilian casualties, is now leading with news of diplomatic effort to solve the crisis. There is also, say local journalists, a subtle shift in tone to a certain finality. One item on the news this week, for example, was Mr Milosevic's meeting with two top military and police commanders in Kosovo reporting on the completion of their tasks of defending the country and destroying the KLA.

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The Yugoslavia Veterans Association presented a silver plaque to two army leaders at a news conference yesterday. Accepting the award, Gen Spasoje Smiljaric, commander of the air force and air defence system, said NATO had failed in its two objectives: to destroy the Yugoslav armed forces and prevent a humanitarian catastrophe.

"Many local analysts in Belgrade feel that Milosevic will accept a solution for Kosovo which will include NATO troops this week," wrote Mr Bratislav Grubacic, editor-in-chief of the VIP Daily News Report.

Still, there was no official response in Belgrade to the announcement of a joint NATO and Russian proposal from the G8 conference in Germany. Indeed, even if Mr Milosevic is trying to prepare the public for a concession on Kosovo, the path is not clear.

Ultra-nationalist leader and Serbian Deputy Prime Minister, Mr Vojislav Seselj, cautioned against the West expecting Yugoslavia's leadership to "come closer" to the NATO demands. His government was ready only to accept "some form of foreign presence in Kosovo, a kind of observer mission consisting of countries not participating in the [NATO] aggression," said Mr Seselj.

NATO, meanwhile, continued attacks outside of Belgrade. Yugoslav media reported strikes on two fuel depots near Nis, a major industrial centre 120 miles south-east of Belgrade. NATO said it attacked five fuel depots. The state news agency Tanjug also reported that three NATO missiles fell on a residential district yesterday afternoon in Noci Sad, Serbia's second-largest city.

Tanjug said NATO missiles struck around the Danube port of Prahovo in eastern Serbia on the border with Romania. A chemical factory was hit, and one person was reported injured.

In Kosovo, impacts were heard early yesterday around the capital, Pristina, at Mount Goles and the outskirts of Grmija; the agency also reported an explosion near the Ponikve airfield.

Montenegro's radio said NATO aircraft attacked a bridge at Novi Pazar in south-western Serbia and a military airfield near the Serbian town of Lazarevac.

Nonetheless, the feeling in Belgrade was that the bombing has paused slightly. It remains to be seen if Mr Milosevic is indeed prepared to make concessions to NATO over Kosovo, or whether this most wily of politicians is merely buying time.