THAILAND:Fifteen months after the bloodless coup that unseated prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, Thailand will go to the polls again tomorrow to restore the democracy taken by the generals.
Mr Thaksin casts a long shadow over the contest. His ruling Thai Rak Thai (TRT) party was dissolved by the junta and he was barred from office. But last night, Chalerm Yoobamrung, a political ally, claimed Mr Thaksin would return to Thailand on February 14th.
Political rivals in the Democrat party in a neck-and-neck race with TRT's reincarnation, the People's Power Party (PPP), fear the 58-year-old billionaire's enduring potency. Polls suggest the PPP, led by right-winger Samak Sundaravej, might win an outright majority of more than half the 480 parliamentary seats.
A clear PPP win would pose a headache for the junta. Sunai Thasuk, of Human Rights Watch, believes army surveillance tantamount to harassment shows the junta is against a PPP victory, which could spawn trouble if it refuses to recognise the election result. "That would put Thailand in a very, very dangerous position," he said.
Should the PPP fail to secure a majority, analysts believe the military will put pressure on smaller parties to join a Democrat coalition led by Abhisit Vejjajiva (43), a suave figure favoured by Bangkok's urban elite.
"We're not going to have certainty after the election," said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Chulalongkorn University's Institute of Security and International Studies director. "We have deep-seated polarisation in the electorate that will only be magnified by the election results."
Last night, revered King Bhumibol Adulyadej urged the army and police to be morally upstanding and to use their spiritual "strength" to pull the country out of its political mess.
"The country doesn't seem to be in a good order at the moment, but you can help tidy it up with your strength," the king said in a broadcast speech to new army and police officers at his Bangkok palace. -