Food prices may rise as rain, drought hit harvest

HIGHER FOOD prices could be on the way in the autumn because of problems with the grain harvest at home and abroad, UCD’s professor of crop science Jimmy Burke has said.

His latest research suggests that the recent unfavourable weather will push down Irish grain yield potential by 10 per cent compared with last year.

“But this reduction could be higher due to other factors such as disease and poorly filled grains,” he said. “As Ireland is already a grain deficit area and relies on imports to balance demand, it is inevitable that there will be knock-on effects in terms of grain price which will translate eventually to higher food prices this autumn.”

Prof Burke said the grain markets had been shaken in the past few months by the worst drought in more than 50 years in the United States.

This was having a very negative impact on the US maize crop and, as the US is the world’s biggest maize producer, this had sent prices to all-time highs.

“There are now drought problems in the US, Europe’s Balkan region and Black Sea countries which are severely affecting the prospects for this year’s EU maize harvest,” he said.

It is expected to be up to eight million tonnes lower than the 2011 EU harvest.

“All of these effects combined will add further pressure to a world market already suffering badly from lower grain yield estimates which are sending world prices soaring.”

Prof Burke said Irish pig producers were already making major losses.

“Current estimates suggest that things could get worse and, despite cereal prices having risen very significantly during the last two months, it would now appear that maize prices could rise significantly more,” he said. “The price of wheat is also likely to rise as global stocks tighten.”

This was bound to have a knock-on effect on food prices, he said. He also expressed the concern that the turmoil in grain markets had “raised the spectre of a global food crisis such as the one in 2008, when surging prices of staple crops provoked rioting in some countries”.

Prof Burke said he saw little room for any real improvement in Irish yields even if weather and growing conditions improved.

Irish Farmers’ Association grain committee chairman Noel Delany estimated that more than 500,000 tonnes of potential grain production had been lost at this stage. Some crop yields were back by up to 40 per cent. “Ground conditions are deteriorating rapidly with water tables at unusually high levels for the time of year,” he said.

“Parts of many, if not all, fields may be left unharvested at this stage, as some parts of the country are receiving in excess of 200 per cent of normal rainfall for this time of year.”

Mr Delany said the winter barley and winter oilseed rape harvest were almost complete.

“However, less than 6 per cent of the main crop – spring barley – and 1 per cent of the second-largest crop – winter wheat – have been harvested to date.”

He said grain farmers had made significant investment in machinery over the last few years so rapid progress could be made if there was a significant improvement in weather and soil conditions.