Flagging campaign requires good news

COALITION CAMPAIGN: Day seven of Operation Iraqi Freedom saw reports of the killing of Iraqi civilians in the streets of Baghdad by US and British air attacks. Bitter fighting continued along the front between Karbala, Najaf and Nasiriyah. In those circumstances, US commanders will be anxious for any good news emanating from Iraq.

Such an opportunity will undoubtedly come with the arrival later today of the Royal Navy supply ship, Sir Galahad. British commanders will be under pressure from Centcom to liberate Basra to create a secure environment within which large-scale humanitarian aid can be distributed. A well-managed supply of humanitarian aid from Umm Qasr to Basra would deliver a much-needed shot in the arm for a flagging allied public relations campaign.

It would also send a powerful message to the defenders of Baghdad. It would point to an attractive and tantalising alternative to suicidal resistance in the face of an ever-growing US military presence within Iraq. Images of humanitarian aid being delivered in Basra might also embolden elements of Baghdad's civilian population to take pre-emptive action against their own leaders.

Baghdad's inhabitants, defenders and citizens alike, will come under increasing aerial bombardment in the coming days. As US troops inch closer to the city, it will also come under increasing artillery and helicopter attack. In those circumstances, with the population of Baghdad in extremis, Centcom will be hoping that the balance of fear in Baghdad will tip in favour of a coup among its leaders.

The US advance on Baghdad is now well established. US marines have advanced beyond Nasiriyah towards the Republican Guard 2nd Baghdad Infantry Division based in Kut. The lead elements of this unit advanced south from Kut to engage US units late yesterday. The US 3rd Infantry Division (Mechanised) continues its push on Baghdad through Najaf and is continuing to engage the Republican Guard Al Medina Division just north of Karbala. The US 101st Airborne Division is now forward deployed to central Iraq. The 101st is believed to be located to the west of the US 3rd Division positions and is poised to strike at the outskirts of Baghdad.

Moving the US 101st Division closer to the city will involve a "leap-frog" manoeuvre designed to relieve hard-pressed elements of the US 3rd Division.

Despite the consolidation of their advance, US encounters with Iraqi troops have proven to be hard-fought affairs. Reports that Iraqi troops have engaged Abrams main battle tanks of the US 3rd Division with shoulder-launched rocket propelled grenades suggest a level of fanaticism and aggression that would normally be associated with Islamic fundamentalist groups in countries such as Lebanon.

This type of resistance was not encountered by US troops in Operation Desert Storm and was not anticipated in the present campaign. In an operational environment where suicidal attacks by Fedayeen troops and Republican Guard units are accompanied by attacks using civilian shields for cover, combat fatigue will become a factor for US troops.

US commanders will therefore be keen to accelerate the envelopment of Baghdad and to prosecute their ground campaign as rapidly as possible. To achieve any increase in an already frenetic operational tempo, Gen Franks will need reinforcements as soon as possible. These reinforcements in the form of the US 4th Infantry Division or Task Force Iron Horse could arrive in Iraq as early as next week.

The US 4th Division is currently aboard 35 cargo ships destined for the vital port town of Umm Qasr. In addition to these 21,000 troops, there are further reinforcements of up to 40,000 troops being made available from the US 1st Armoured Division, US 1st Cavalry Division and the US 3rd Army Cavalry Regiment.

In the meantime, Gen Franks and Centcom will be relying on close air support and the massive air power assembled in the Gulf to support their troops in the field. In terms of close air support, the US will be making use of the A-10 Thunderbolt to destroy Iraqi Republican Guard tanks. These jet aircraft are heavily armed and armoured and are designed to fly low and slow over the battlefield targeting advancing and dug-in armour.

Like the Apache attack helicopter, the A-10 is designed to withstand direct hits from 23mm anti-aircraft cannon and can fly on one engine.The deployment of such aircraft reflects the difficult battlefield conditions currently being experienced by US and British troops.

As US commanders exploit massive fire-power and air superiority to subdue Iraqi resistance they will be anxiously awaiting reinforcements for the final push on Baghdad.

• Dr Tom Clonan is a retired Army officer with experience in the Middle East and former Yugoslavia. A fellow of the US- based Inter-University Seminar on Armed Forces and Society, he lectures in the School of Media, DIT