ANALYSIS:The tradition in Irish politics that byelections are always won by an opposition party has come to an end
THIS WEEK’S byelection in Dublin West was, incredibly, the 22nd to have been held since a government last held on to a Dáil seat. That was in Galway East in 1982 and the victor was Noel Treacy.
Patrick Nulty’s victory has put an end to that extraordinary tradition and gives the Labour Party its second seat in this four-seat constituency.
There are cogent reasons as to why the cycle was broken but there are also two other powerful sub-plots – both of which are indirectly related.
The first is the very strong showing of the Fianna Fáil candidate David McGuinness, who put in an extraordinary performance to finish in second place.
Coupled with that is the party’s realisation that with Dublin West lost, it has no Dáil representation in Dublin.
The second is the very poor performance by Fine Gael, adding more misery to an abysmal day for the party.
If you look at all byelections over the past 30 years, only a small handful have taken place within a year of a general election. In essence, they have provided the opportunity for the electorate, at mid-term, to fire shots across the bows of the government party. But then, there is no follow-on.
They have tended to have no appreciable ripple effect on national elections (the only exception being the Donegal South West byelection last winter, which was in reality the first stirrings of the general election campaign).
What marks this out as different is that this election took place within eight months of a general election. And that general election was one that had no precedent – the dominant State party being removed from the equation in the capital. It is too early for anything but it indicates the most nascent disillusion with the Government, as borne out by the polls.
Dublin West is a left-leaning constituency and it was likely that a party of the left would have won. Perhaps a year down the line, Ruth Coppinger or David McGuinness would have given Nulty a run for his money.
But not now.
Nulty had two other advantages going for him.
He is very much on the left of the Labour Party and will be perceived as an anti-coalition government TD.
Second, Labour’s reach is broader in the constituency than the Socialist Party. It was a big ask for Coppinger to draw votes in more middle-class areas.
On the face of it, the death of Brian Lenihan has left Fianna Fáil without a seat in the capital. But the party will consider this performance a massive fillip, its first really good news in a gruelling year.
McGuinness is an effervescent candidate and, at 25, carries no baggage. Finishing second was a huge achievement – and on these figures he would be a shoo-in in a general election.
It’s also evident that the raw hostility towards Fianna Fáil is dissipating and the party is now on a slow recovery trail. For Fine Gael, it’s a disaster. In the same way Coppinger lacked appeal in places like Castleknock, Eithne Loftus’s support was confined to a very narrow base.
While Leo Varadkar is always strong, translating 25 per cent support into 50 per cent for a byelection was never on.
Beyond that, the party must ask itself questions about candidate selection. A 15 per cent showing is poor by any yardstick – and may be indicative of straws in the wind.
Coppinger was a good candidate but also relied on the appeal of the sitting TD Joe Higgins, who has a huge profile. She could become the party’s standard-bearer in one of the neighbouring constituencies.
Like Fianna Fáil, the Greens also had a mini-revival. Roderic O’Gorman more than doubled his vote since February, giving tentative signs that his party may also find a way back.
This constituency has never been a happy hunting ground for Sinn Féin, although Paul Donnelly also significantly improved this time on his general election performance.