FINE GAEL will test the Government’s voting strength when the Dáil resumes today after the summer recess by moving the writs for the three outstanding byelections.
In the past week two TDs who normally back the Government have said their support can no longer be relied upon.
Galway West TD Noel Grealish and Tipperary South TD Mattie McGrath have withdrawn their support for the Coalition in an effort to extract more money from the Health Service Executive for their constituencies.
Although the TDs have said they are open to negotiations on the issue, Minister for Health Mary Harney and other Ministers have ruled out a deal with either of them.
This afternoon Fine Gael will move the writs for the holding of the byelections in Donegal South West, Dublin South and Waterford.
Sinn Féin Senator Pearse Doherty has instituted a High Court action designed to force the holding of the Donegal contest, following the defeat of a motion by his party in the Dáil before the summer on the issue.
That hearing is scheduled for the middle of next month. But it is expected the Government will move to pre-empt the case by announcing a date in the spring for the byelections.
Today’s Dáil divisions on the byelections will be the first test for the Coalition in what is expected to be a difficult session.
The Government is assured of 79 votes in the 163-member Dáil, which is short three TDs pending the byelections.
Backing the Coalition are 70 members of the Fianna Fáil party plus two TDs who have lost the whip, Dr Jimmy Devins and Eamon Scanlon from Sligo. The six Green Party TDs and Minister for Health Mary Harney can also be relied on to bring the total to 79.
The Opposition can rely on the 51 Fine Gael TDs, 20 from the Labour Party and four from Sinn Féin to bring its total to 75.
The Government’s fate rests in the hands of the eight other TDs. Michael Lowry and Jackie Healy Rae normally vote with the Government although they opposed in on the Bill to ban stag hunting.
Two Fianna Fáil TDs without the whip, Mattie McGrath and Dr Jim McDaid, usually support the Coalition but they have indicated there are circumstances in which they will vote against.
Noel Grealish, who previously backed the Government, has said his support can no longer be relied on while former Fianna Fáil TD Joe Behan has frequently voted against the Government.
Two Dublin socialist Indpendents, Finian McGrath and Maureen O’Sullivan, usually oppose the Coalition but they have voted for it in some crucial divisions.
It is unlikely that all eight Independents will vote against the Government when the byelection writs are moved. But over the next few weeks Fine Gael and Labour will attempt to put them under pressure through Dáil motions which will make it difficult for them to vote with the Coalition.
If the Government survives the next two months, the vote on the budget on December 7th will be the critical test of its ability to survive.
The increasing cost of Government borrowing on international money markets means a tougher budget than originally envisaged is now inevitable and that will impose an extra strain on the cohesion of the Coalition and its ability to get the measure through the Dáil.
Another complication is that Michael Lowry and Jackie Healy Rae have indicated that they will not continue to support the Government if Fianna Fáil changes its leader and nominates a new taoiseach to replace Brian Cowen.