Fine Gael expected to regain seat

Dublin North is being transformed rapidly from a semi-rural area to an outer suburb of the metropolis.

Dublin North is being transformed rapidly from a semi-rural area to an outer suburb of the metropolis.

Population levels have soared in recent years, making the election outcome difficult to predict.

Nor is the forecaster's job made any easier by the fact that three of the four outgoing TDs are not standing this time.

About the only certainty in the constituency is the re-election of Green Party leader Trevor Sargent, who topped the poll in the last general election.

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This is the only constituency with two Green candidates. And although Sargent's running-mate, Joe Corr, a councillor, is unlikely to make it, setting down roots for the future is a good strategy, as well as being consistent with Green philosophy, of course.

Formerly the stamping ground of former minister Ray Burke, this constituency was a traditional Fianna Fáil heartland. The party had almost two quotas last time, but the new residents of Dublin North are unpredictable and their vote could go anywhere.

Nevertheless, the prospect that two Soldiers of Destiny will be sent back to Leinster House cannot be dismissed.

The party has three hungry candidates in the constituency: Michael Kennedy, a councillor from the Swords ward, who competed until the seventh count in 2002; Darragh O'Brien, from Malahide, a protégé of outgoing deputy G.V. Wright; and former Dublin goalkeeper and All-Ireland medallist John O'Leary, who has strong Balbriggan connections.

Fine Gael lost its Dublin North seat last time in dramatic circumstances.

Votes were counted electronically in this constituency in 2002 and former justice minister Nora Owen was a high-profile casualty.

This time around, the Fine Gael standard-bearer is Dr James Reilly, a former president of the Irish Medical Organisation. He is a well-known GP in Lusk.

There is a Fine Gael seat for the winning here and the resurgence in the party's fortunes may well propel Dr Reilly into the Dáil.

Socialist Party candidate Clare Daly almost made it in 2002, surviving until the eighth count. Many observers feel she has an even stronger chance this time.

An Aer Lingus shop steward and member of Fingal County Council, she is an active campaigner on local issues.

Hard-working deputy Seán Ryan is not standing this time and his younger brother, Brendan, is the Labour candidate.

The Progressive Democrats had no candidate in 2002 but Senator Tom Morrissey has entered the lists on this occasion. Morrissey has suggested moving Dublin Port to Balbriggan, which may arouse mixed feelings among local residents.

Trade union activist Matt McCormack is the Sinn Féin candidate.

So how will it all pan out on election day? Fine Gael should take back its "natural" seat, but probably at Labour's expense. Given Fianna Fáil's national campaign difficulties, the party vote will more than likely drop, but probably not enough to give a seat to the Socialist Party, which could suffer some "slippage" to Sinn Féin and the Greens.

Verdict

FF - 2; FG - 1; GP - 1

FG to win a seat from Labour