THE LABOUR Party has overtaken Fianna Fáil for the first time since polling began, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi poll which reveals that support for the main Government party has almost halved since the last election.
Fianna Fáil has now slumped into third place behind Fine Gael and the Labour Party in the wake of its plan to make savings of €2 billion this year through a public service pensions levy and a range of cost- cutting measures.
The poll also shows that a substantial majority of voters would now like to see a change of government, with 62 per cent favouring a change and 28 per cent opposed to it.
The Government’s satisfaction rating has dropped to 14 per cent, with 82 per cent now expressing dissatisfaction with its performance. This is a record low since polling began, with supporters of all parties, including Fianna Fáil and Green voters, now strongly dissatisfied with the Coalition’s performance.
The adjusted figures for party support, compared with the last Irish Timespoll in November are: Fianna Fáil, 22 per cent (down 5 points); Fine Gael, 32 per cent (down 2 points); Labour, 24 per cent (up 10 points); Sinn Féin, 9 per cent (up 1 point); Green Party, 4 per cent (no change); and Independents/others, 9 per cent (down 4 points).
The poll was conducted last Monday and Tuesday among a representative sample of 1,000 voters in face-to-face interviews at 100 sampling points in all 43 constituencies before the political controversy about the Government’s plan to recapitalise the banks and the latest developments in Anglo Irish Bank. The margin of error is 3 per cent.
The core vote for the parties (before undecided voters are excluded) compared with the last Irish Times poll is: Fianna Fáil, 20 per cent (down 5 points); Fine Gael, 24 per cent (down 1 point); Labour, 17 per cent (up 7 points); Sinn Féin, 8 per cent (up 1 point); Greens, 3 per cent (no change); Independents/ others, 6 per cent (down 2 points); and undecided voters 22 per cent (no change).
The drop in the Fianna Fáil core vote to just 20 per cent will shock party strategists, particularly as its share of the vote in Dublin is now just 13 per cent. That figure means the party faces a wipeout in the capital in the local and European election in June unless it can reverse the trend.
The satisfaction rating figures are also deeply worrying for the Government given that it is only at the beginning of the process of implementing a range of tough cost-cutting measures in an effort to stabilise the public finances.
Among Fianna Fáil supporters 55 per cent are dissatisfied and just 40 per cent satisfied with the Coalition’s performance. Among Green Party supporters the figures are much worse, with 85 per cent saying they are dissatisfied with the way the Government, of which their party is a member, is running the country.
The Taoiseach fares a bit better with 56 per cent of Fianna Fáil supporters expressing satisfaction as against 39 per cent who are dissatisfied.
However, Green Party voters are very unhappy with Mr Cowen’s performance, with 79 per cent of them dissatisfied as against 18 per cent who are satisfied.
The rating of Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny has dropped by 3 points to 30 per cent since the last poll but he is still 6 points ahead of the Taoiseach.
Eamon Gilmore has increased his satisfaction level to 44 per cent (up 6 points) and he is now the most popular party leader by a significant margin. His rise has coincided with a massive jump in support for his party.
Green Party leader John Gormley has seen a marginal increase in his rating to 29 per cent (up 1 point) while Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams is on 32 per cent (down 1 point).
An ominous trend for the Greens in the poll figures is that the party’s vote is spread evenly across the country and is no longer concentrated in Dublin.
The response to the question asking voters if they would like to see a change in government also raises questions for the Greens, as party supporters opted for change by a margin of 61 per cent to 29 per cent.
Across the political spectrum only Fianna Fáil supporters said they would not like to see a change of government. Over 80 per cent of Fine Gael and Labour supporters said they would like to see a change and 75 per cent of Sinn Féin voters took the same view.