FG vote will be lower than national average

CONSTITUENCY PROFILES: CORK NORTH CENTRAL:ARGUABLY THE more predictable of the two Cork city constituencies since it became a four-seater in 2007, Cork North Central looks a more intriguing contest than neighbouring Cork South Central on this occasion, with a far greater range of possible outcomes.

Originally encompassing a broad sweep of working-class areas across the city’s north side, from Knocknaheeny to Mayfield, and middle-class enclaves such as Shanakiel and Montenotte, the constituency has been revised since 2007 with a large expansion into the county.

Aside from changes in boundaries, the other notable development since 2007 is the decision of both Fine Gael stalwart Bernard Allen and Fianna Fáil maverick Noel O’Flynn not to contest the election, ensuring the election of at least two new TDs.

The loss of Allen for Fine Gael is inestimable. A prolific vote- getter, he pulled a huge personal vote out of working class areas such as Blarney Street, Gurranebraher, Farranree and Churchfield, which otherwise would be relatively barren territory for the party.

The party is running two first- time candidates, councillors Pat Burton from Blarney and Dara Murphy from Montenotte, who enjoyed a high profile year as lord mayor in 2009. It is far from certain though that either will garner anything like the vote Allen got in working-class areas.

Indeed, the main beneficiaries of Allen’s retirement and that of O’Flynn, and the departure of Independent Dave McCarthy, who polled 2,492 in 2007, will be Labour TD Kathleen Lynch, Sinn Féin councillor Jonathan O’Brien and Mick Barry of the Socialist Party, also a councillor.

Lynch was on 18 per cent in an Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll last week and should take the first seat for Labour, with Fine Gael certain to win a seat with either Murphy, who was on 11 per cent, or Burton, who was on 10 per cent.

O’Brien, who was on 16 per cent, should make the breakthrough for Sinn Féin.

The last seat would appear to be between Fianna Fáil’s sole standard-bearer, sitting TD Billy Kelleher, Labour councillor John Gilroy from Glanmire, who polled 4,538 in the 2009 local elections, and Barry, whose base is in the city but who cannot be discounted, having got 13 per cent in the poll.

While Fianna Fáil’s vote is falling in the constituency and Fine Gael’s vote will be lower than the national average because of Allen’s departure, it would still require an extraordinary but not impossible swing to the left for Lynch, O’Brien and Barry to be elected.

Barry is a contender but his transfers may elect O’Brien, leaving Kelleher and Gilroy fighting for the last seat. Much depends on which Fine Gael candidate is eliminated, with Burton’s exit rather than Murphy’s perhaps suiting Kelleher better.

CORK NORTH CENTRAL 4 SEATS

OUTGOING TDs: Billy Kelleher (FF), Noel O'Flynn (FF), Bernard Allen (FG), Kathleen Lynch (Lab).

DECLARED TO DATE: Billy Kelleher (FF), Pat Burton (FG), Dara Murphy (FG), Kathleen Lynch (Lab), John Gilroy (Lab), Ken Walsh (GP), Jonathan O'Brien (SF), John Adams (Ind), Benjamin Ashu-Arrah (Ind), Mick Barry (SP), Kevin Conway (Ind), Fergus O'Rourke (Ind), Pádraig O'Sullivan (Ind), Harry Rea (CSP), Ted Tynan (WP).

LOCAL ISSUES: There is concern about HSE plans to transfer surgery from St Mary's Orthopaedic Hospital to the South Infirmary Victoria University Hospital. Cork's northside has been particularly badly hit by unemployment. Among those in receipt of social welfare payments, there is trepidation over proposals by the two main parties to cut public expenditure; the Universal Social Charge is also getting an airing on the canvass.

VERDICT: FG 1, Lab 2, SF 1