FG's high-risk strategy in Louth

The election in Louth, a key marginal constituency, is set to be a real cliffhanger that could surprise everyone. The entry of Fine Gael MEP Mairéad McGuinness into the race galvanised the campaign in the four-seater.

The party has adopted a high-risk strategy to try to return both McGuinness and sitting TD Fergus O'Dowd in a constituency that had traditionally elected two Fianna Fáil TDs - and twice even returned three.

A Red C poll in this week's Drogheda Independent shows McGuinness, Cllr Gerald Nash of Labour and Cllr Mark Dearey of the Green Party are all on 9 per cent, just 1 per cent behind Séamus Kirk, Fianna Fáil's parliamentary party chairman and a sitting TD.

The poll, which gave those surveyed a ballot paper and worked out the results based on transfers, has McGuinness just squeezing out Kirk for the fourth and final seat, but gives Nash and Dearey a fighting chance.

Nash, a former full-time trade unionist, has been an active Drogheda-based county councillor and worked hard on the local issues, including hospitals, housing, school class sizes and transport. So has Dundalk town councillor Dearey, who first hit the headlines in 1994 when he and three others took a case against British Nuclear Fuels Ltd to stop reprocessing at Sellafield.

He runs a music venue in Dundalk and would attract a strong "green tide" and youth vote.

In the poll McGuinness's vote has dropped 5 per cent since January, when the high-profile former journalist announced her candidacy, while Kirk increased his showing by 1 per cent to 10 since January.

Kirk is a popular but low-key candidate, who could bank on the older vote and, while vulnerable, he is far from out of the race.

Fine Gael in Louth has publicly maintained a united front although there are undoubted tensions between the McGuinness and O'Dowd camps because of the high-risk strategy. O'Dowd, a consistent constituency worker, can take some comfort that his vote has remained steady at 13 per cent, a good indication that he could take the third seat.

Highly effective, McGuinness performed a remarkable feat in helping Fine Gael secure two seats in the European Parliament in the East/Leinster constituency. Hoping to repeat the performance for the Dáil, she will garner much support from her native Ardee in mid-Louth, but it is the least populated part of the county and she will be expecting votes from throughout Louth, while the party's remaining candidate, Dundalk town councillor Jim D'Arcy, has the northern end of the constituency. In the end it will all come down to geography, transfers and how much Fine Gael benefits from the "alternative coalition" banner.

If Fianna Fáil's heartland stays loyal and with rigid vote management, Kirk might hold on. With a changing demographic, a high-profile candidate and similar transfer cohesion, it could be two for Fine Gael.

It looks like Dermot Ahern will be first elected, followed by Sinn Féin's Arthur Morgan, with O'Dowd a clear possibility for the third seat.

The latest poll shows an overall 1 per cent increase in the Fianna Fáil vote, although Ahern's vote is down 4 per cent while the party's third candidate Cllr Frank Maher is up by the same percentage to 5 per cent.

The party in Louth has traditionally been good at vote sharing, and in 2002 with very tight vote management Ahern topped the poll, just 78 votes above the quota, which helped Kirk enormously. But it is a very tight contest this time around.

The Minister, who has been in the Dáil 20 years and done much for his constituency, is no doubt always conscious of his 1989 trauma when he held his seat by just six votes. Events in the North may give a slight bounce to both Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin.

There is a traditional north vs south rivalry between Dundalk and Drogheda and local papers had previously run campaigns calling on voters to transfer their votes to elect a Drogheda-based TD. In 2002, this resulted in more of Cllr Maher's vote going to O'Dowd than to Kirk.

Hospitals are the number one topic in Louth. Morgan has had a lead role in highlighting the downgrading of Louth County Hospital in Dundalk. Our Lady of Lourdes Hospital in Drogheda cannot accommodate the consequent rise in patient numbers.

It would be easier to predict a Grand National winner than the outcome of this constituency.

Health is the big one, with the controversy over the downgrading of Louth County Hospital in Dundalk and the huge concentration of services in Drogheda's Our Lady of Lourdes Hospital. There is also major concern about the lack of facilities and services for children with special needs, including occupational therapists. Class sizes and school accommodation is another issue, as are transport, infrastructure and housing given that Louth has become a commuter county for Dublin.