Opinion Poll/analysis: A majority of voters now believes alternative alliance can win the election, writes Stephen Collins, Political Editor
Fine Gael and Labour have retained a lead over the outgoing coalition in the latest Irish Times, TNS mrbi poll but the Taoiseach Bertie Ahern and Fianna Fáil have improved since the last poll two weeks ago.
Fianna Fáil is up by 2 points to 36 per cent and the good news for the party is that the Taoiseach's satisfaction rating is up by 1 point, despite the continuing controversy over his personal finances.
However, the party's share of the vote is still more than 5 points lower than that achieved in the last election and it will need to pull back more support in the final two weeks of the campaign to make it back into government.
The increase in Fianna Fáil support is almost entirely due to a sharp rise of 12 per cent in the rest of Leinster, as compared to the last Irish Times poll. By contrast the party has slipped a little in Dublin, its weakest region. It is down 4 per cent in Connacht-Ulster and up 3 per cent in Munster.
The party still has a good spread across all age groups but it is strongest in the over 65s and in the 35-49 age group. It is marginally stronger among middle-class voters and farmers than working-class voters.
The fact that Mr Ahern remains the most popular leader is positive for the party, even though other leaders have closed the gap.
The drop in PD support to 2 per cent means that the party is in real trouble. What will really worry party strategists is that the vote is thinly spread across the country and is not concentrated in any particular region.
The drop of 3 points in the Fine Gael vote will not come as a huge surprise to party strategists. It is still the second highest TNS mrbi poll rating for the party since 2002 and if it could produce that figure on election day the party should win more than 50 Dáil seats.
One of the reasons for the decline is that the Fine Gael share of the vote has slipped in Dublin where it is now in joint second place behind Fianna Fáil on 15 per cent. It is also down in the rest of Leinster but it is up in Munster and Connacht-Ulster.
Across age groups the party is strongest among over-65s and weakest among 18-24-year-olds. Fine Gael is strongest among farmers, followed by ABC1 voters, where its support is a few points higher than among C2DE working-class voters.
A significant development in the poll is the 6-point increase in Enda Kenny's satisfaction rating to 47 per cent.
It is his highest rating since he became party leader and he is now in the same zone as the other party leaders.
The party with most to cheer about in the poll is Labour, which has seen a long-awaited 3-point increase in its vote share to 13 per cent after a worrying slump over the past 12 months.
A vote share of 28 per cent for Fine Gael and 13 per cent for Labour would give the alliance a better chance of winning the election than the 31:10 proportions in the last poll.
The Labour share of the vote in Dublin has increased dramatically since the last poll and it is now in joint second place with Fine Gael on a core vote of 15 per cent.
Its share of the vote in the rest of Leinster, Munster and Connacht-Ulster is unchanged. The further increase in Pat Rabbitte's satisfaction rating to 50 per cent is another piece of good news for the party.
The further slide in the vote for the Greens will come as a disappointment, particularly as it is now in fifth place in Dublin on 6 per cent. It is at the same level in the rest of Leinster and lower again in Munster.
One hopeful sign for the Greens is that by contrast with previous polls it does best among voters in the 25-34 and 36-49 age groups, who are inclined to vote, rather than among the 18-24-year-olds, who are far less likely to vote. In class terms the party is more attractive to middle-class than to working-class voters.
Sinn Féin has held its share of the national vote at 10 per cent. Its strongest regions are Dublin, where it is on 11 per cent, and Connacht-Ulster, where it is on 10 per cent.
There is still a big imbalance in gender terms with men almost twice as likely to support the party as women while in class terms support is concentrated among working-class voters.
The consistent support of 8 per cent for Independents and Others means that the smaller parties such as the Socialists as well as some Independents will be present in the 30th Dáil.
On coalition options there is also good news for the alternative alliance. Support for the Fine Gael and Labour coalition, with the possible support of the Greens, is up 2 per cent to 38 per cent while the Fianna Fáil-PD coalition is up 1 per cent to 36 per cent.
Support for these options breaks down along predictable party lines but a worrying figure for the Government is that in Dublin 40 per cent plump for the alternative with 29 per cent supporting the current coalition.
The Government is ahead 1 point in the rest of Leinster, behind in Connacht-Ulster and it is level-pegging in Munster.
For the first time more people think that the Fine Gael-led alliance will actually win the election. This represents a huge turnaround in two weeks and indicates that the alternative has convinced the voters that it is a realistic option.