Fine Gael could become the biggest Oireachtas party over the decade and this would be "a fair ambition", says its spokes- man for finance, Mr Michael Noonan. He claims the fallout from tribunals of inquiry will reduce the Fianna Fail vote.
"It is diminishing the core vote of all parties, but particularly Fianna Fail, and if you diminish the core vote there are more people available as a floating vote."
He recalls that Fine Gael had the largest number of Oireachtas members in 1982, a year after he was first elected to the Dail. He says Fianna Fail now has "an extremely serious problem".
"I don't think Fianna Fail will ever again have an overall majority. I don't see any party having an overall majority. But I could see Fine Gael, over two elections, replacing Fianna Fail as the biggest party."
He is writing off the Progressive Democrats and recalls with a chuckle the reaction when, following the Hugh O'Flaherty nomination, he said they had been founded by Des O'Malley in 1985 and buried by Mary Harney in 2000.
He says time has caught up with them and they are no longer relevant.
And what of Fine Gael? He believes a lot of the party's advantages are provided by the Government parties, saying they have failed to deal with the sleaze issue and form "a very incompetent administration".
"Fine Gael will give very strong ethical leadership and Fine Gael will not wear any sleaze in the party, and will change the law to ensure that in the future politics will be clean and ethical."
He does not believe that the party's former TD and front bench spokesman, Mr Michael Lowry, will be allowed back into the party ranks while the Moriarty tribunal is running and while Government-appointed inspectors are investigating the North Tipperary TD's companies.
Mr Noonan (57) was made minister for justice in December 1982, a year after being first elected to the Dail, and since then has been in industry and commerce, energy and in health. He is now party spokesman on finance for the second time.
He has often been mooted as a party leader and in 1994 put himself forward in a failed heave against Mr John Bruton.
Most recently, before the South Tipperary by-election, there were murmurings among backbenchers about the party being unable to capitalise on the Government's woes. However, Fine Gael's relatively strong performance has quelled those voices for now.
"I was not conscious of any revolt before the South Tipp by-election. I knew there was a lot of grumbling in the party but there are different levels of grumbling more or less constantly in politics."
However, Mr Noonan would be unlikely to refuse the honour. He says he has been 20 years in politics and has been on the frontbench and in cabinet. Over time, names get mentioned, he adds, and "that is the same in all political parties".
He now has his sights on being the next Minister for Finance. "I have marked it for a long time and I am pretty interested in it and I understand the issues fairly well."
He described the last McCreevy budget as "socially divisive, blindingly unfair and discriminates against one-income families where a mother stays at home to look after her children".
"Inflation now is top of the agenda and the Minister has to be very careful not to over-stimulate the economy, so I don't think he can put a billion and a half into circulation again this year but, at the same time, he has to fulfil his commitments under the PPF, otherwise there will be wage demands. So he has got quite a difficult task."
From Foynes, Co Limerick, Mr Noonan is married with five children. He is a graduate in English and economics from UCD, and taught at both primary and secondary level. He was elected to Limerick County Council in 1974 and to the Dail in June 1981, following his party colleague, Mr Tom O'Donnell, in taking a seat in Limerick East.
He was thrown straight into the phone-tapping controversy 18 months later when made minister for justice in a government led by Dr Garret FitzGerald. The Haughey administration had tapped two political reporters' telephones on foot of official warrants and Mr Noonan made the revelations public, sparking a crisis for Fianna Fail.
As minister for industry and commerce he abolished export credit insurance for Iraq in May 1986, when the State's exposure amounted to £25 million. It was one of his "better decisions", Mr Noonan says, although it was undone by his successor, Mr Albert Reynolds.
He was minister for health from 1994 to 1997 and is remembered for introducing the abortion information legislation, bringing BUPA to heel over the "community rating" issue and launching a national alcohol policy and anti-cancer strategy.
"I was very strongly committed to totally reforming the treatment of cancer in the country and had gone a long way down the line with that. I think the edge went off of it when I left," he says.
However, it was the hepatitis C scandal which occupied him most during his tenure. He apologised after suggesting that the late Mrs Brigid McCole's legal representatives should have advised her to go to the compensation tribunal rather than the High Court in pursuing her action for damages.
"I made an unfortunate remark all right and I apologised for that. It was scripted. I scripted it. I took full responsibility. I take full responsibility for everything I say. I am not going to be blaming civil servants."
Yet normally his instincts are sound and his style is rather like that of a teacher who combines a love of words with mock indignation and sarcasm to lash his charges.
Above all, he is a lover of the gibe. Asked whether his teaching skills apply in politics, he replies: "I suppose they do. I mean, the fact that you can speak in sentences is an advantage."