FF may hold only one Kerry seat in next election

Kerry, which was once a Fianna Fβil stronghold, has become a black spot for the party.

Kerry, which was once a Fianna Fβil stronghold, has become a black spot for the party.

From a high of having four of the six seats in the county's two constituencies, the party now faces the humiliating prospect of losing its Kerry North seat to Mr Martin Ferris, of Sinn FΘin.

This would leave the Minister for Justice and Kerry South TD, Mr John O'Donoghue, the party's sole member of Leinster House from the Kingdom.

The slide in Kerry North has been due, in part, to bitter infighting in the organisation, while the second Kerry South seat was lost when Mr Jackie Healy-Rae left the party and won a seat as an Independent in 1997.

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There is no prospect of Mr Healy-Rae returning to Fianna Fβil, and with Fine Gael still striving to rebuild its base in Kerry South, no change is expected at the next election.

The battle to head the poll will be between Mr O'Donoghue and Mr Healy-Rae, with the Labour TD, Ms Breeda Moynihan-Cronin, taking the third seat.

Two recent opinion polls, by the Kerryman and TG4, contained ominous news for Fianna Fβil in Kerry North, with Mr Ferris poised to take the seat held by the outgoing TD, Mr Denis Foley, who is retiring from politics.

The TG4 poll showed Mr Spring and the Fine Gael TD, Mr Jimmy Deenihan, both on 24 per cent.

Mr Ferris was on 23 per cent, up on his 1997 general election figure of 16 per cent.

The two Fianna Fβil candidates, Mr Tom McEllistrim, whose father and grandfather represented the constituency in the Dβil, and Senator Dan Kiely, secured 17 per cent and 12 per cent respectively.

The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, who holidays in Kerry, is expected to make a number of high-profile visits to the constituency in the coming months to boost the party's chances.

The TG4 MRBI poll noted that the contest for the third seat would be down to the wire, and the prospect of Fianna Fβil losing, while currently apparent, might change dramatically as election day moved closer.

However, with Mr Spring rebuilding his profile and expressing interest in a ministry if Labour returns to power, and Mr Deenihan a consistently impressive electoral performer, the battle for the third seat will almost certainly be between Mr Ferris and Fianna Fβil.

The decline of Fianna Fβil in Kerry has been dramatic since the high point of the 1977 election when the county returned four TDs as part of Jack Lynch's sweeping 20-seat majority. In Kerry North, the party had 57.3 per cent of the vote, while in Kerry South it secured 48.7 per cent.

However, Mr Spring, who was first elected in 1981, strengthened the Labour base, despite coming close to defeat in 1987, while Mr Deenihan won back the Fine Gael seat.

Meanwhile, a bitter battle between the McEllistrim and Foley camps saw the once-strong Fianna Fβil organisation go into decline and the party's vote had slumped to 26.31 per cent by the 1997 election.

Mr Foley retained the seat, although he had been outpolled in first preferences by Mr Ferris.

In Kerry South, Mr Healy-Rae caused a sensation when he outpolled Mr O'Donoghue and took the second Fianna Fβil seat, which had been held by Mr John O'Leary since 1966.

Mr O'Leary had retired and was replaced as a candidate by his son, Brian, who had been expected to take the seat.