The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, can take some comfort from the fact that he was not alone in receiving a battering in the European elections, writes Denis Staunton.
If the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, cuts a lonely figure this morning as he considers the wreckage of the European and local elections, he can console himself with the prospect of sympathetic company in Brussels on Thursday. Among the 25 leaders who will gather around the summit table, only four have escaped punishment from the voters this week.
Mr Gerhard Schröder's Social Democrats had their worst result in Germany for half a century and Britain's Labour Party has not fared so badly in a national election since before the first World War.
The leaders are meeting this week to agree a constitutional treaty that was meant to address the "disconnect" between the EU and its citizens, which the Taoiseach identified after Ireland's rejection of the Nice Treaty. If they needed convincing that the disconnect is still there, the leaders were presented with ample evidence in this European election, in which only 45 per cent of voters bothered to vote.
The turnout in the old 15 member-states was only slightly lower than in 1999 but it was considerably lower in the new member-states.
An MEP from western Europe remarked snootily yesterday that, since the eastern Europeans don't bother voting in national elections, their failure to vote this week should not be blamed on the European Parliament.
The leader of the Liberal group, Mr Graham Watson, blamed the media for not paying enough attention to the work MEPs do. Others complain that the press focus too much on the parliament's lavish expenses regime, creating the impression of a deluxe gravy train shuttling between Strasbourg and Brussels.
The president of the centre-right European People's Party (EPP), Mr Wilfried Martens, declared that he was bewildered by the public's indifference. "After 40 years working for European integration, I am asking myself, what can I do?" he said.
At a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Luxembourg yesterday, the consensus favoured avoiding panic, agreeing the constitution this week and making a vigorous effort to explain its virtues to the public. "My feeling from the discussions was that, far from people being disposed to be hardline, they are now more disposed to seek agreement," said the Minister of State for European Affairs, Mr Dick Roche.
Despite the battering received by most governing parties, the shape of the European Parliament is set to remain almost unchanged, with the EPP, the Socialists, the Liberals and the Greens occupying about 80 per cent of the seats between them. The remaining 20 per cent are held by the far left, nationalists, Eurosceptics, miscellaneous populists and independents.
Eurosceptic movements made gains in Britain and Sweden but lost ground in Denmark. In Austria, the Eurosceptic Freedom Party lost most of its seats to the maverick MEP, Mr Hans-Peter Martin. In Poland, the Catholic League of Polish Families, which is critical of the EU, won 17 per cent of the vote but Mr Andrzej Lepper's anti-EU Self Defence Party won only 13 per cent.
The Eurosceptics and populists are probably too few and too diverse to make much impact in the parliament itself but they could influence the debate on the EU in their member-states. That debate will become more intense during the next two years if the leaders succeed in agreeing the constitutional treaty this week.
The Taoiseach and the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, believe that the treaty can be presented to the public as a "people's constitution" which will make the EU more efficient, more transparent, more democratic and closer to citizens. They hope that, as soon as the treaty is agreed, all EU leaders will immediately start campaigning to persuade their citizens to support it.
Such campaigns will be important if the treaty is to be ratified in all 25 member-states, many of which will put it to a referendum.
Many senior EU politicians believe the treaty has only a 50 per cent chance of being approved in all member-states - one integrationist foreign minister says it has only a 20 per cent chance.
Mr Tony Blair's decision to hold a referendum has undoubtedly made ratification less likely, raising the prospect of the constitution being approved in most but not all member-states. Strictly speaking, all EU treaties must be approved by all member-states if they are to come into force, but it is unlikely that 24 countries would be prepared to abandon a project that has been three years in the making if only one rejected it.
Failure to ratify the treaty in one or more member-state would create a crisis for the EU, which would probably lead to a "two-tier" arrangement, with some countries integrating more closely with one another while others remain more detached.
In the meantime, the newly-elected European Parliament must consider how it can bridge the gap with citizens and persuade more Europeans to take an interest in its work. The outgoing president, Mr Pat Cox, succeeding in raising the parliament's profile and in improving its standing with other EU institutions.
If it is to gain the confidence of citizens, however, the parliament must first reform its expenses system, which pays MEPs the full air fare home regardless of the cost of the ticket and pays generous subsistence payments without asking for receipts. The parliament's failure to get its own house in order is among the causes of its low standing in the eyes of the public and new MEPs would do the institution a favour if they press for early reform.