EU treaty draft shows shape of things to come

EU: Today's meeting of senior officials from the EU's 25 member-states in Croke Park marks the start of the most intense phase of negotiations on the constitutional treaty.

The Irish presidency has just six weeks to resolve differences on more than 30 issues, ranging from big, institutional questions such as the size and composition of the Commission to relatively minor matters of concern to only one or two countries.

The presidency's new draft text seeks to eliminate as many of the minor disagreements as possible, leaving the most politically sensitive issues to foreign ministers and leaders. The biggest disputes of all - over the Commission, the introduction of a new voting system in the Council of Ministers and the abolition of national vetoes on many policy issues - will be addressed in the tour of EU capitals this month by the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern.

Despite the remaining unresolved questions, the shape of Europe's constitutional treaty has begun to emerge. As more governments declare their intention to hold a referendum on the final text, the areas of possible controversy are also becoming more apparent.

The treaty makes clearer than ever before where power lies within the EU and sets out what can be done at a European level and what should be left to national governments. The new draft states explicitly that "the Union shall respect the equality of member-states before the Constitution" as well as their national identities.

A new president of the European Council would provide political leadership among the member-states and co-ordinate their work in the Council of Ministers. The current system of six-month, rotating presidencies would be replaced by a team system in which three countries would share responsibility for running the Union for 18 months.

More decisions would be made by qualified majority, under a new voting system that would more closely reflect the population of each member-state. All decisions made by qualified majority would also need the approval of the European Parliament.

An EU minister for foreign affairs, who would also be a vice-president of the Commission, would chair meetings of EU foreign ministers and conduct the common foreign and security policy. Each country would be obliged to come to the aid of another in the event of a terrorist attack, although it would be for each state to decide the nature of the help it wants to give.

A group of countries within the EU would be allowed to co-operate more closely on defence and foreign policy but only with the unanimous approval of all other member-states. The EU, which is currently composed of a number of legal entities, would have "legal personality", enabling it to conclude international treaties.

Many sensitive policy areas, including foreign policy and almost all aspects of taxation, would remain subject to unanimity. One of the most potentially controversial proposals, however, would allow EU leaders to agree unanimously to abolish the national veto in any policy area apart from those with military or defence implications.

The prospect of referendums in many member-states adds a new dimension to the Irish presidency's task in finding agreement on the treaty. Leaders will wish to avoid the spectacle of extended, last-minute negotiations such as those at Nice and Amsterdam.

The Taoiseach will seek to begin next month's summit with almost all disagreements already resolved and with a clear prospect of compromise on the rest. Leaders could pay the price for late-night wrangling in Brussels when the treaty is put to the test of ratification over the next two years.